Poll: When Does Support Break?
- Dude, this is it.
- Sorry bears, It's a permanently low bottom.
- First quarter of 2019
- Hold your horses, later in 2019
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
I'm thinking the Fed will decide. If the Fed raises rates and signals they'll keep doing it, it will break. If they signal they'll hold back, it will be the signal for the final run-up and blow-off top.
Stock market investors are finally coming to their senses and realizing that this market is overvalued by at least 75%. Greed and stupidity will get you every time!!!!! Every single time. I have no sympathy for any of them.
Da ship be sinkin'
A trump tweet will resuscitate
My guess: Santa rally starts by Christmas, and there will be much rejoicing. But it won't last, the bear is woke.
So who is buying at that level? Don't tell us it's the dumb money. Who has deep enough pockets to defend 2600? Not the ignorant public. It has to be a concerted effort on big money and the Fed to defend that level but to what end? It merely delays the inevitable and they'll pay a heavy price for nothing, and they never do something for nothing. Perhaps a wholly different agenda, e.g. seizing retirement accounts for federal bail ins? How? IDK, but expect the worst.
The quickest way to knock 2000 pts off the Dow is for the Fed to give Trump what he wants - no hike next week. It will be pure comedy listening to the OMG! What does the Fed know? commentary
Mish, also look at the price level of the Russell 2000 to see the break in the larger market. The Russell is at a new low for 2018. S&P600, DJT, and others are at low for the year also. A few high profile stocks have kept some markets above the Jan/Feb lows but it is very shaky.
I pick door number 4. Fed hikes and adds dovish language to forecast. Market bounces. Nobody big has blown up spectacularly yet. We make it to roughly second half of 2019 before the wheels start to fall off?
The bottom will fall out by next spring and Trump will resign from office. The market will love the uncertainty of a Pence-Pelosi white house for 18 months.
Trump isn't going anywhere. You liberals will have to continue your tantrum. If it gets worse, then it wont surprise me. Infact, if someone is to happen then its likely in 2019 because they will want a good economy for 2020 election. Why so much air being let out of so many markets at the same time? 1) Fed raising interest rates 2) Trade Treaties being renegotiated. Trade war with China. Less Chinese money being invested in foreign markets which is crashing Australian, Canadian and US markets. 3) EU is bankrupt. It cant afford migrants and social programs for an aging population. 4) Technology shifts are changing economy. Its not just Amazon killing bricks and morter stores but electric cars killing gas powered sedans. There are other technology shifts changing the employment market.