Is it now safe to admit Bitcoin was in a bubble?
To all you would be dip buyers, I have one more question: If you did not like Bitcoin at $6,000 on the way up, is there any reason to like it now?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
I'm sure you are much smarter than the manufactures of all these Bitcoin ATM machines - https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/bitcoin-atm-installations-skyrocket-throughout-market-correction.
Do you think all the crypto-based businesses, including big investors like IBM, are detoured by the big pullback, which has occured multiple times over the last 5 yrs?
If the Dow pulls back to 22K, will you like it? Since you didn't like it at 22K; or for that matter at 12K, 13K, 14K, 15K, ... 20K, or 25K, why would you like it at any of these levels tomorrow?
When the govt bond bubble pops, where do you think global capital will flow? Oh ya, gold is the only sane investment (just don't let the govt know you have it).
I like your use of the term "residual". In fact, the primary (intended) use of bitcoin is a global decentralized payment system which has thus far been effective at getting around various Gov't efforts at capital controls. For example, bitcoin continues to drive the Chinese Gov't crazy. It's also an attractive option for US residents since the Obama era crack down on third party payment systems. After the infamous DOJ "Liberty Reserve" bust, most of the popular payment systems available to the rest of the world (e.g. Skrill, Neteller, Perfect Money, Kiwi, Fasapay, OKPay, etc) no longer accept US citizens or restrict their use to only certain types of websites. Same with credit/debit card companies. Until something better comes along, Bitcoin will continue to serve this user community.
Could Bitcoin go to $300? Zero? Of course. In the end it's value is determined solely by what someone else will pay for it. With Tulips, if no one wanted to buy them, you could at least grow them. With Beenie babies, if no one wanted them, you could still play with them, or look at them, so both have residual value and can't go to $0. Bitcoin has no residual use, though, so it could go to $0. It could also go to $100,000. It could also settle in at $6,000 and stay there. I have no prediction as to which of these routes it will take, but I have no plans to buy any.
bitcoin has to hit rock bottom, otherwise you will still have believers
When there is a meaningful collapse you will see easy money moving in reverse. If the FED doesn’t catch this falling knife expect this event to move to other markets. A game of chicken is happening in the background, if someone doesn’t blink this is just a small taste of the popping of the everything bubble.