Spotlight on Powell's Definition of "Just Below Neutral"
Mike Mish Shedlock
Effective Fed Funds Rate
The Effective Fed Funds Rate is 2.2%. Neutral is 3.0%.
Lovey-Dovey Interpretation of Powell Speech Sends Stocks Flying
On Wednesday I commented Lovey-Dovey Interpretation of Powell Speech Sends Stocks Flying.
Here's the exact statement from Powell under discussion.
Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.
Debate Over "Just Below"
Powell has an out. The media focuses on "just below".
Powell stated just below the "broad range of estimates".
The lead chart from the WSJ "Daily Shot" shows the "median prediction" not the "broad range".
Compared to the median, the Fed needs just over three more hikes to get to neutral. Compared to the "broad" range. we are already there.
That was a carefully crafted statement by Powell.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock