Stop Boris Campaign is Doomed from the Start: Prepare for No Deal


The bookmakers give Boris a 1 in 3 shot of becoming the next PM. Focus on reality, not bookie odds.

The "Stop Boris" campaign is in full swing, but it's as likely to be as much of a success as the "Anybody But Trump" Campaign in 2016.

Stop Boris Theory

  1. Boris has to beat out all of the other Brexiteers. He may fail.
  2. If Boris survives to the final round, he still has to beat out someone who promises to secure a deal.
  3. Tories will rally around the second choice.

For starters, don't confuse betting odds with true odd. Betters are not reliable predictors of elections. Bookies arrange their books (or at least attempt to), based on bets people make. The bookies don't care who wins or loses if their books are properly balanced. Betting is not a scientific poll.

Missing the Boat

An alleged Tory "Polling Expert" says Boris Johnson Fails to Appeal to Floating Voters Needed to Win Election.

Tory peer Lord Hayward said there was a "striking antipathy" towards the former Foreign Secretary in traditional Tory areas like the Home Counties.

The peer said whoever becomes the next Tory leader must win over those who voted Leave in 2016 if the party is to stand any chance of victory.

However, he said they must also be "transfer-friendly", meaning they appeal to floating voters more interested in competent government.

By that measurement, Mr Johnson scores badly compared to leadership rivals Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt. "Boris is pitching to MPs at the moment saying 'I am the one who will win'," Lord Hayward said.

Remainer Sap

Hayward does not provide "expert analysis".

Instead, Hayward provides heaping cups of Remainer sap in the form of the same misguided Remainer theories that led to the demise of Theresa May.

Delusional Remainers

Similarly, Independent writer John Rentoul misses the mark by a mile with his analysis: Boris Johnson is going to blow it – and it will be Michael Gove who will pip him to become prime minister.

These people are delusional Remainers.

Rise of the Brexit Party

  • Gove and Hunt are as pathetic as Theresa May.
  • Wishy-washy compromise is not the way to go.
  • Nigel Farage's Brexit Party provides all the evidence one needs.

MP's Rally Around Boris

Eurointelligence provides excellent analysis of what's really taking place.

We are full of admiration for the sporting spirit of the British media. But leadership race feels to us like a bit of a misnomer for what is currently dominating Tory and UK politics. It is not really a race. It may not even be a competition. Boris Johnson has been in pole position from the start, and he is now building on his lead.

The Times has a story this morning that three Remain-supporting Tory junior ministers are supporting Johnson. They said that he is the only candidate who can save the party from extinction. Self-preservation - not Brexit - has suddenly become the main issue for the Tories. Johnson is the only candidate with a chance to defeat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election. MPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats. They are supporting the leader most likely to ensure their political survival. 

The main effect of Farage on British politics is not his own election results, but his impact on the Tories. Like Farage, Johnson draws on the benefit of a simple message. Farage frames the argument as one of Brexit versus betrayal. For Johnson it is a choice between Brexit and the extinction of the Tory party.

The whole stop-Boris campaign some MPs talked about never made sense to us because of the way the vote is structured. Starting Thursday next week, MPs will vote for a shortlist of two candidates in four elimination rounds. The remaining three votes will take place June 18, 19 and 20. Johnson has so far received public endorsements by forty MPs, which will be enough to get him into the third round of voting. Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt have twenty-six each.

Tory members will then choose one of the two from the shortlist. We know that Johnson is the strong favourite among the party faithful. If he were to drop out for some reason, we expect the winner to be one of the other Brexiteers - Dominique Raab for instance. We doubt that Tories will vote for Gove, given his support for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. A recent story in the Daily Telegraph claimed Gove proposed a Brexit extension until 2020 in a cabinet meeting. That makes him essentially unelectable in view of the Farage threat. We cannot see the Tories voting for any candidate who fails to deliver Brexit before general elections. And these might arrive early, given the narrow majority in the House of Commons.


Eurointelligence commented "MPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats."


Change UK Provides Lesson in Reality

The misguided set of eleven "Change UK" MPs is now down to five.

"Change UK" is a new political party formed by former Labour and Tory MPs who wanted to Remain.

What the hell kind of change is that?

Dire Results

Amusingly, Change UK Lost Six of its 11 MPs After Dire EU Elections Result.

Six of Change UK’s 11 MPs, including its spokesman, Chuka Umunna, and interim leader Heidi Allen, have abandoned the fledgling party after its dire performance at the European elections.

Message is Clear

Change UK will soon vanish. It elected zero MPs in the EU parliament elections and will elect zero MPs in the next UK general election.

Six Change UK politicians already abandoned the party out of self-preservation.

The best way for politicians to keep their job is to deliver Brexit.

Neither Hunt nor Gove will do that.

One way or another a die-hard no-deal Brexiteer (Johnson or Dominic Raab) will properly deliver Brexit.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (13)
No. 1-7

I do hope Johnson wins.


It seems the current era is marked by the worst kind of people being propelled to leadership positions: The era of dregs to flotsam.


Johnson a 'die hard' Brexiteer?

They chose him to run the Brexit campaign because they thought that it would give remain a better chance of winning. Brexit won despite him. I doubt Boris has a Brexit bone in his body. That said, he probably doesn't have a remain one either. I think he will go for a hard Brexit just because he now sees the need to do something whilst in power, he will want to be remembered for something. Brexit is going to that memory.



I keep seeing Nigel's name mentioned, but where does he fit in this picture?


Globalists' puppets are all the voters get to choose from.



"I keep seeing Nigel's name mentioned, but where does he fit in this picture?"

Good question. Unknown answer.

It depends on elections and the timing of them. If there are elections soon, for any reason, he may become the next PM.

If BJ delivers Brexit and a year passes and people are happy, the BrexitParty vanishes.

The longer things go without an election, the less likely Nigel fits in the picture.


It's not just Tories who need the Brexit issue resolved to avoid political catastrophe. We've reached the point where it is now in Labour's/Corbyn's interest to kill the issue and hopefully (for him) have it diminish in importance. This further increases the odds of No Deal.

The calculus has changed. Corbyn previously assumed that Brexit chaos/delays would harm the conservatives to the benefit of Labour, resulting in him being able to call for a general election and take power. However, the recent EU elections suggest otherwise. Labour would lose seats to the Brexit Party and LibDems if a general election were held soon. This is political suicide for Corbyn. The only way for Labour (and the Tories) to improve their standing is for Brexit to be resolved ASAP and for their indecisiveness and disunity to fade from voters' memories before the 2022 elections. If Corbyn wants to become PM his only hope is to get the discussion back to issues more favorable to Labour (i.e. NHS funding).

Here's what I expect to happen:

  1. Bojo (or another Brexiteer) takes over.
  2. Bojo attempts to re-negotiate with the EU.
  3. EU says no or only offers minor changes.
  4. Bojo returns to the UK and says that the EU is unwilling to compromise and says that the UK has no other option but No Deal. He seeks political cover by blaming the EU.
  5. Labour kicks and screams about "Tory malpractice" but offers only taken resistance to No Deal, happy that the issue is no longer front and center.
  6. Brexit party immediately dies, with voters returning primarily to the Tories but also Labour. This is nevertheless a major victory for the Brexit Party and Farage (their goal is not to create a long-lasting party).
  7. LibDems continue to whine about Remain and promote a Second Referendum. However, with Brexit resolved, many voters return to their homes primarily in Labour but also Tory. This continues with time.
  8. The status quo is restored with the Tories and Labour jockeying for the top spot with the LibDems in a distant third.

At this point, the above is literally a win for everyone except for the LibDems, who nobody cares about anyways.

Global Economics