Inquiring minds are investigating results of a recent YouGov Survey on voter attitudes towards various Tory Party candidates.
A series of questions all leads to the same place. Let's take a look.
The L's and R's represent my view of whether or not the candidates would really leave or really remain.
A customs union is worse than remaining.
Head to Head Results
Johnson is light years ahead of Gove and Hunt. Neither Gove nor Hunt matches well with Raab.
Curiously, even Remainers like Johnson, and more so than Michael Gove.
Who Can Win?
Winning is where the rubber meets the road. Tory party members do not believe either Gove or Hunt would win a national election.
Reader "Chips" Comments
It's not just Tories who need the Brexit issue resolved to avoid political catastrophe. We've reached the point where it is now in Labour's/Corbyn's interest to kill the issue and hopefully (for him) have it diminish in importance. This further increases the odds of No Deal.
The calculus has changed. Corbyn previously assumed that Brexit chaos/delays would harm the conservatives to the benefit of Labour, resulting in him being able to call for a general election and take power. However, the recent EU elections suggest otherwise. Labour would lose seats to the Brexit Party and LibDems if a general election were held soon. This is political suicide for Corbyn. The only way for Labour (and the Tories) to improve their standing is for Brexit to be resolved ASAP and for their indecisiveness and disunity to fade from voters' memories before the 2022 elections. If Corbyn wants to become PM his only hope is to get the discussion back to issues more favorable to Labour such as National Healthcare Service (NHS) funding.
Chips' Proposed Scenario
- BoJo (or another Brexiteer) takes over.
- BoJo attempts to re-negotiate with the EU.
- EU says no or only offers minor changes.
- BoJo returns to the UK and says that the EU is unwilling to compromise and says that the UK has no other option but No Deal. He seeks political cover by blaming the EU.
- Labour kicks and screams about "Tory malpractice" but offers only taken resistance to No Deal, happy that the issue is no longer front and center.
- Brexit party immediately dies, with voters returning primarily to the Tories but also Labour. This is nevertheless a major victory for the Brexit Party and Farage (their goal is not to create a long-lasting party).
- LibDems continue to whine about Remain and promote a Second Referendum. However, with Brexit resolved, many voters return to their homes primarily in Labour but also Tory. This continues with time.
- The status quo is restored with the Tories and Labour jockeying for the top spot with the LibDems in a distant third.
- At this point, the above is literally a win for everyone except for the LibDems, who nobody cares about anyway.
Point six is an astute observation.
Corbyn does not want an election now because Farage could actually win the damn thing. Labour and the Tories would both be decimated.
Once the Tories actually deliver Brexit, there is no reason for a single issue party (whose goal is Brexit) to exist.
Other than me, Chips is the only one I have seen make this proposal.
That said, if the Tories don't deliver Brexit, Nigel Farage could actually win a 5-way race. (Tories, Labour, Brexit Party, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change UK). That's 6 actually, assuming Change UK does not fold soon.
Neither the Tories nor Labour want an election now. So, the logical conclusion is Brexit will be delivered, kicking and screaming one way or another.
The irony in this setup is that the best chance Remainers may have is if BoJo does a turnaround vs his stance of leaving with no deal in October, and the EU agrees to another extension or some lengthy trap.
I am more convinced that Dominick Raab, Andrea Leadsom, or Esther McVey would not backpedal than I am of Johnson.
Raab stands alone of being willing to do whatever it takes from stopping no deal.
Those backing Remain would do best to support BoJo and hope he makes a big mistake.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock