"Stupid Time" for Pot Stocks

Mike Mish Shedlock

“This is just stupid time. I can’t believe the valuations at this stage,” says Investitute co-founder Jon Najarian.

The new mania is pot stocks. Valuations are beyond absurd, which is what always happens in bubbles. Investitute co-founder Jon Najarian says It's Stupid Time.

In June, Canada announced it will legalize recreational marijuana use effective Oct. 17, sparking a series of industry moves. Soon after Canadian marijuana producer Tilray filed for an initial public offering, which occurred in July.

In August, Molson Coors said it will partner with The Hydropothecary Corporation to develop cannabis-infused beverages for the Canadian market. Later that month beer maker Constellation Brands invested an additional $4 billionin Canadian-cannabis producer Canopy Growth.

Tilray shares are up more than 800 percent through Wednesday morning since its first day of trading after its July IPO and rose nearly 600 percent in the past month. The stock is also up nearly 50 percent Wednesday, a day after its CEO Brendan Kennedy told CNBC's Jim Cramer that pharmaceutical companies should partner with cannabis producers as a "hedge" against the space.

The company now has a market value of more than $20 billion with its stock price at $233, trading at nearly 500 times its 2018 estimated sales versus the S&P 500's 2.2 times sales, according to FactSet.

Tilray reported just $17.6 million in sales over the last two quarters with a net loss of $18 million in the same time period.

"This is just stupid time. I can't believe the valuations at this stage," Investitute co-founder Jon Najarian said in interview Wednesday.

Bitcoin vs Pot

Another Wall Street trader compared the mania surrounding pot stocks this year to 2017's cryptocurrency market craze. For example, Riot Blockchain shares surged by more than 400 percent during the fourth-quarter last year.

"It reminds me of Bitcoin / Blockchain late in 2017 … There was a stock called RIOT who experienced explosive growth in its stock price simply because it was one of the few ways to invest in bitcoin publicly," Baird institutional sales trader Michael Antonelli said in an email Wednesday. "Humans are emotional creatures and nothing is worse than seeing your friend get rich in a pot stock, while you sit in an index fund. So I have little doubt that people are chasing the stock higher so they don't feel left behind."

Riot Blockchain shares are down more than 85 percent this year.

Pot Shot

From $17 to $280 and Tilray is losing money. Wow.

I certainly wish I took a crack at that pot shot.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (6)
No. 1-5

Tesla has similar numbers; went from about $33 to $254 from Jan 2013 to March 2014...took a little longer but the same dynamic here....a "new" industry giving market "leaders" ridiculous valuations they can never back into but keep the float low and this could go on for a long time


It's legal now.... Oh wait, it's still illegal on the Federal level.


PUTs for Tilray... That valuation is just insane...


When the market is over-valued and extended the way it is investors start jumping onto the silly stocks hoping for the next Amazon. Noboy looks to get rich on marijuana growers after a two year 20% plus drop in equity prices. Also suspect there are a few people acting out their drug fantasies investing in this.


The marihuana market is already heavily supplied by existing producers, many, if not most of whom are illicit. Those who think that those existing producers will just pack up and disappear when its "legalized" in Canada are delusional. The existing producers have families to feed, and returns to be made on their investments. If anything, because the illicit producers do not pay taxes, are free of the burden of regulation, and have the flexibility to be very responsive to customer needs, they'll easily outcompete the highly burdened "regulated" producers. Personally I'd mark most companies that purport to produce and sell commoditized marihuana to "zero". There might be some value in firms that are researching derived pharmaceuticals, but nowhere nearly as much as implied by current market valuations. The idea of soft drinks containing marihuana extracts is ludicrous and is exploiting the public's fundamental misunderstanding of what marihuana is as a substance.

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