# Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat

Mish

Electoral Calculus has a nice User-Defined Election Projection Tool. For the above chart, I used the Electoral Calculus current model.

**Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projections**

Labour does not pick up any seats in the Electoral Calculus model. It projects a 34 seat Tory majority.

Note that Electoral Calculus projects Dominic Raab will lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats.

**ComRes Projection**

ComRes does not offer any projections but it does have region-by-region totals that I used to feed Electoral Calculus.

**Electoral Calculus Projection From ComRes Data**

**Electoral Calculus Seat Change Projection From ComRes Data**

This model projects Labour will pick up one seat from Plaid Cymru while losing 40 seats elsewhere.

This model also shows Tories doing better in Scotland than most believe. I suspect that will be the actual case based on falling poll numbers of SNP.

**YouGov Analysis**

The YouGov Election Centre updates its model periodically. It provides a seat-by-set CSV-file download which I took then added some cross-check calculations.

It is not easy to see on the raw YouGov CSV file which party won. I added a set of columns to show which party won each seat.

You can download my summation of their data from my Google Drive UK Seat by Seat Projection File.

There were 8 ties. I cannot tell from the CSV file which party won the ties other than Tories 2, Labour 4, and Liberal Democrats 2.

**Results**

- YouGov Nov 19-26: Tory 68 Seat Majority
- Electoral Calculus Nov 26-30: Tory 32 Seat Majority
- ComRes Data Modeled by Electoral Calculus Nov 27-28: Tory 48 Seat Majority
- Average: 49

I believe the average is about right.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock