Tories Take Crushing Lead in Latest Polls

-edited

The latest polls show increasing leads for the Tories. The trends by pollster are increasingly favorable as well.

Tories have gained ground In all the recent polls except for BMG which remained the same between polls,

But is the lead 6, 8, or 17? That's how wide the difference are but the Survation poll at 6% is getting rather stale.

In contrast, the three most recent poll spreads by Deltapoll, YouGov, and Opinium are 15%, 17%, and 16% respectively.

YouGov Spotlight

YouGov does the most polls in general, and it also offers some regional breakdown that other pollsters generally don't.

YouGov Tory Spread by Date and Region

For the 2017 actuals, I used 2017 United Kingdom general election in England

UK Election 2017 - England Only

Here are the 2017 United Kingdom General Election results.

2017 General Election Results

Spreads Now vs 2017 Election

Take your pick. The spread between the Tories and Labour was 2.4 percentage points or 3.5 percentage points.

The most current spreads are in the mid-teens.

Spreads Now vs 2017 Trends

But But But UK Polls Are Notoriously Bad

None of this matters to my avid Remainer friends because everyone knows that UK polls are notoriously bad, especially YouGov.

Precise quotes

  • "Well, forget the polls, UK polls are garbage."
  • " the trouble with Polls in the UK is that they are useless."

Let's explore that line of thought.

YouGov Election Model vs. Result

YouGov Final Poll vs Result

  • YouGov correctly called for a Hung Parliament
  • YouGov underestimated Tories by 1.5 PP
  • YouGov underestimated Labour by 3.0 PP

YouGov's expected 4.0 PP lead was actually 2.5 PP. That's your "notoriously bad" result.

Those counting on "notoriously bad" results to save the day, need something far more notorious given that YouGov has the Tories with a 17-point lead.

What About London?

I am glad you asked.

YouGov Four Most Recent London Breakouts

‚ÄčIn the 2017 election the Tories lost London by a whopping 21.4 percentage points.

In the latest poll, the Tories are down by a measly 1.0 percentage point. The poll count for London is likely thin, but still!

Also note my projections by other pollsters show Labour Losing Ground In Last Two Weeks even before the three new polls today.

My Current London Estimate

  • Tory: 32 (+11)
  • Labour: 33 (-16)
  • Lib Dem: 8 (+5)

If the current polls are in the ballpark, Tories stand to pick up over 10 seats in London and monstrous numbers in the "Rest of the South" and "Wales Midlands".

Oh, wait, I almost forgot. Throw all of this away. The polls are notoriously flawed, garbage, and in fact, totally useless.

Addendum

  • Survation just jumped from 6% lead to 14% lead.
  • Lowest poll to be found is now +8
  • I believe Survation had the most accurate final poll in 2017

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (16)
No. 1-10
Country Bob
Country Bob

I think its awful that Britain's intelligence service MI6 was so heavily involved in John Brennan's attempted coup in the USA. At least two MI6 assets were instrumental in fabricating background stories, and one (Christopher Steele) fabricated the infamous dossier that Hillary Clinton paid for. The UK government has not brought either of these spies to justice for their involvement in the attempted coup -- even though the UK is supposedly a close US ally.

Yes, I am also aware that Obama and Google's Eric Schmidt spent millions of US taxpayer dollars (along with private monies) to influence elections in Israel. Netanyahu won despite their efforts. That doesn't make it right.

We in the USA should not be trying to influence UK voting. The British people voted for Brexit several years ago, and despite efforts by Brussels, the polls Mish cites suggest the British voters will re-affirm their decision.

Polls don't decide the outcome, whether they are right or wrong. Constant micromanaging interference from Brussels probably turned a lot of people off -- all over Europe and the UK. Anti-EU sentiment has been demonstrated all over Europe (not just the UK or just Germany or just Italy or just Poland or just France). People don't want to be manipulated and controlled -- not by Brussels, not by Washington, and not by media outlets either.

Whatever happens should be the UK voters decision. We in the USA shouldn't behave like the crooks in their government or in ours.

.

Are we allowed to talk about the shit going on in Hong Kong? They don't seem to want to toe Beijing's line anymore than the rest of us. Twitter is censoring political dissent in US elections. Youtube is going to shut down channels that don't adhere to San Fransisco politics. Facebook is deleting accounts of persons who don't share the glorious Hoodie leader's political views. Are we allowed to talk about Google and Facebook using monopolist tactics to destroy all other online advertising revenue? Silicone Valley is trying to impose political censorship in the USA, and that (unlike Brexit) is the business of people in the USA

Mish
Mish

Editor

Survation just jumped from 6% lead to 14% lead. Lowest poll to be found is now +8 I believe Survation had the most accurate final poll in 2017

avidremainer
avidremainer

And yet the yougov poll published in the Times for 5th-7th June 2017 gave the Tories 42 and Labour 35. Mmmmmmm.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Scooot
Scooot

The most important day so far is tomorrow, the first TV debate between Mr Johnson & Mr Corbyn.

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

The BBC has a very good analysis of the marginal seats in play, a quarter of all seats, which is a remarkably high figure compared with previous elections. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50349111 There's 51 "ultra marginal" seats.

Many of the marginals are 60+% brexit voting with sitting pro-remain MPs as well. I'd also not realised that many of the Scottish seats were very tight in 2017, one of them only two votes majority. I wonder if the SNP banging on about independence is going to give them a bit of a shock in some seats, maybe it won't be the walk-over they expect?

.

Bill_Butlicker
Bill_Butlicker

Its all over. The fat lady has sung and has left the building

Bagger
Bagger

It amazes me that, despite Avidremainer's statements about Boris the Tories continue to rise. Also, despite Corbyn's incredible offers on freebies for everyone the Labour Party struggles to gain any traction. Also, despite Swinson claiming to be the only party leader worthy enough to be PM the Lib Dems continue to fall. Also, despite Farage claiming everyone else is corrupt and acting illegally his Brexit Party is vanishing into a rabbit hole. Don't get me wrong, I quite like this and long may it continue. But I wonder if I (and 40+% of voters) just don't really care. We want Brexit delivered and Boris is the only one that can do it - warts and all!

Scooot
Scooot

A long way to go yet. Must not get complacent & keep going until fully across the line.

djwebb1969
djwebb1969

Yes, it's looking like a decent Conservative majority - but this means Brexit is dead. Johnson has neutered it into Brino and will get that through. What a malicious and sinister party the Conservatives are!