Tortured Death of Germany's Grand Coalition

-edited

Germany's Grand Coalition has been on life support for years. Will SPD finally put the coalition out of its misery?

SPD Leadership Contest Surprise

Two little-known left-wingers emerged as surprise winners in an SPD leadership vote on Saturday.

SPD is the junior partner in what's left of Chancellor Angela Merkel's no longer "grand coalition".

Renegotiate the Deal

The Guardian reports New Co-Leaders of Junior Coalition Partner Want Major Concessions From Merkel’s CDU.

Germany is facing the prospect of months of political uncertainty with the collapse of the coalition, which has been fragile since its inception after the 2017 election, a growing likelihood. It also raises the prospect that Merkel, who has said she will not run for another term in office, will face an earlier exit from the political stage than she intended.

Walter-Borjans and Esken narrowly secured first place in the SPD leadership vote on Saturday on 53%, beating the expected winners Olaf Scholz, the finance minister and vice-chancellor, and Klara Geywitz by eight points in a second-round runoff.

The result, delivered on a 54% turnout of the 425,000 SPD members, was a blow to Scholz, one of the architects of the grand coalition, and is widely seen as a vote of no confidence in him. The immediate focus is now on Scholz. If he decides he has to resign from his ministerial roles as a result of the defeat, the coalition would in effect be over, even if an election would not happen until well into next year.

Demands

Among their main demands are an increase in the minimum wage from €9 an hour to €12 and a backtrack on the government’s central fiscal policy of balancing the federal budget, known as the “schwarze Null” or the “black zero”, to allow for more spending on infrastructure and welfare programmes. They are also calling for a more radical approach on the climate emergency.

The CDU has made it clear it is unlikely to accept such demands. Speaking after the result, Paul Ziemiak, the party’s general secretary, said: “Our aim is to govern Germany well, and the foundations for this are in our coalition agreement. This internal decision by the SPD changes nothing in this regard.”

If the coalition dissolves, Merkel, who has been in power since 2005, would have to choose whether to resign, call a confidence vote, or attempt to lead a minority government under her leadership or that of someone else within the CDU, or to start negotiations over the formation of a new government.

The Financial Times says SPD Result Heralds the End of Germany’s ‘Grand Coalition’

It is not only the era of Ms Merkel, chancellor since 2005, that is drawing to an end. So, too, is the era of “grand coalitions” uniting her Christian Democratic party with the SPD.

Actually, the grand coalition effectively ended years ago.

But SPD and CDU still remain at the deathbed refusing to admit the patient has already died.

Why?

Perks. It's tough to give up limousines, big salaries, and other perks.

Even following this electoral surprise, it's still unclear if the new leaders or Scholz will officially call in the coroner to state the obvious.

Meanwhile, let's look at the polls for coalition replacement possibilities.

Germany Election Polls

The Union is CDU/CSU. Thus, the alleged grand coalition would get about 41% of the vote.

Coalition Possibilities

  1. CDU/CSU has ruled out a coalition with AfD. Besides, CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP only totals 48%.
  2. CDU/CSU + the Greens total 49. That total could get over the line. But the Greens would have to agree to be the junior player and they would place huge left-wing demands on CDU/CSU.
  3. CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP totals 49. But even if such an arrangement could top 50%, SPD has demands that neither CDU/CSU or FDP would accept. Besides, SPD is sick of these coalition governments with CDU/CSU as the senior partner.
  4. CDU/CSU + the Greens + SPD would total 63 but both the Greens and SPD would have even more demands CDU/CSU could not accept.
  5. The Greens + Die Linke + SPD would total 44. That's not enough. Besides, neither party wants to deal with the radical left Die Linke.

The coalition that makes the most sense position-wise is number 1. However, CDU/CSU has ruled that out. Then again, Merkel will be gone so there's a chance such a coalition will be in play.

Q: Why?

A: It's the perks, stupid. Free limos and all sorts of goodies for the government in power.

CDU/CSU Unpleasant Choice

CDU/CSU will have a choice to make: Agree to give the Greens huge concessions or enter a government with AfD.

It's not entirely CDU's choice. The Greens might not want to go along.

Who Holds the Winning Cards?

If CDU/CSU or FDP refuses to enter a government with AfD, then the Greens will hold the cards one way or another.

Possibly the Greens and SPD would be willing to hold their noses and enter a left-wing government with Die Linke, if necessary.

I believe you know the reason. Perks.

In any left-wing government, the Greens would be the senior partner. Thus, the Greens have every reason to not enter an arrangement with CDU/CSU unless they get major concessions.

Meanwhile, the coroner is knocking on the door. Will SPD or CDU let him in, or will they continue this tortured death at the risk of Greens and AfD strengthening further?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (30)
No. 1-7
GaiaMoney
GaiaMoney

They won't let the coroner in. They rather die slowly. There is a verb for it: "merkeln".

leicestersq
leicestersq

You can rule out any agreement with AfD. Across Europe the game is the same, keep the nationalists out at all costs. Everything is subsidiary to that goal.

JLS
JLS

One of the problems with all these dream team theories is that they assume that any given party's vote would remain solid if it entered into a coalition. Protest votes, which probably underlie much of the Green's popularity (or SPD's), can pop like soap suds when brought into contact with increasingly unpopular parties like the CDU/CSU. I'd bet on the AfD and die Linke attracting more true believers, which might be a good reason for no-one to want to work with them.

It's looking as though Germany, like many other Western states, is becoming increasingly difficult to govern, because more people want to join the opposition to anything the government does (whatever that is) than cooperate, or at least tolerate. It's like a bunch of sour children: whatever it is, they're against it.

avidremainer
avidremainer

Politics goes in cycles that is why the UK election is important. It is obvious that the Reagan-Thatcher revolution has run its course. We are on the cusp of a new orthodoxy. If Corbyn , big if, becomes Prime Minister then Europe will break left. This is because it will show that a left wing party can win if it goes left enough. That will be a huge thing for all of Europe. There is a paradox at work here. Corbyn is profoundly conservative with a little "c". Don't laugh, he wants a return to what he considers a better time, when boomers, and I am a boomer, were told that the world was our oyster, all you needed was a good education and the future was golden. I benefited from this. I was paid £16 per week, when colliers were on £35, to study. The radicals have been on the right. Forever changing everything, crushing Trade Unions, removing restrictions on finance forever reforming reforming never standing still. Trickle down will provide us all with everything. Except that trickle down never happened. Billionaires only need one washing machine per house that they own, there is only so much money that they can spend, the theory of surplus value kicks in with a vengeance. If Corbyn wins it means hello to a left wing Europe, hello President Sanders and goodbye to the current orthodoxy.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Shenanigans play ordinary people as fools.

Slowly "populations" are waking up and seeing the show for what it is - not run for them, a sort of game show.

Are most people political? I suspect not. The more alliances behind closed doors the wider the gap between voters and rulers.

Mish
Mish

Editor

It is beyond absurd to label Corbyn, a clear Marxist, as conservative in any way.

WildBull
WildBull

Hey, Avid Remainer: Corbyn's economics have failed in Eastern Europe, former USSR, former Yugoslavia, Cambodia, Viet Nam, China, N Korea. There are still a few Marxist hell holes in the world. Why don't you move to Zimbabwe or Venezuela, or Cuba instead of wishing that horror on the US, UK and rest of Europe without personally trying it out? Experience it for yourself before making your decision. There you will find crushing poverty and oppression for all. True equality achieved.