Tory Support Splinters, Nigel Farage's Brexit Party Nearly Even in Polls


Theresa May, the worst negotiator in history, splintered the Tories so badly the Brexit Party is nearly even in polls.

Farage Forms New Party

The Guardian reports Tories Hit by New Defections and Slump in Opinion Polls as Party Divide Widens.

The bitter fallout from Brexit is threatening to break the Tory party apart, as a Europhile former cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell on Sunday announces he is defecting to the independent MPs’ group Change UK, and a new opinion poll shows Conservative support plummeting to a five-year low as anti-EU parties surge.

The latest defections come as a new Opinium poll for the Observer shows a dramatic fall in Tory support in the past two weeks and a surge for anti-EU parties. The Conservatives have fallen by six percentage points to 29% compared to a fortnight ago. It is their worst position since December 2014. Labour is up one point on 36% while Ukip is up two points on 11%.

Even more alarmingly for the Tories, their prospects for the European elections appear dire. Only 17% of those certain to vote said they would choose the Conservatives in the European poll, while 29% would back Labour, and 25% either Ukip (13%) or Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party (12%).

YouGov Poll

A more recent YouGov Poll looks even worse for the Tories

In the YouGov poll, UKIP and BREX total 29%.

Polls Volatile

Eurointellingence has these thoughts on the polls.

We have noted before that classic opinion polls at a time like this are next to useless. But we found an interesting constituency-level poll, by Electoral Calculus, showing for the first time that Labour would get enough constituency MPs to form a minority government with the support of the SNP. This is a shift from previous such exercises, which predicted a continuation of the status quo with the Tories still in command.

This latest poll, too, is subject to our observation of massively intruding volatility. It says that some of the Tory’s most prominent MPs would be at risk, including Amber Rudd and Iain Duncan-Smith. And we agree with the bottom-line analysis of John Curtice, the pollster, who said the abrupt fall in support for Tories is due entirely to their failure to have delivered Brexit on time.

The Tories are facing two electoral tests in May - local elections on May 2 and European elections on May 23. Early polls are show Nigel Farage's new Brexit party shooting up, taking votes away from the Tories. If European elections were held, we would expect the Brexit party to come ahead of the Tories. Labour is rock-solid in the polls, but Labour unity is at risk as the pro-referendum supporters want Jeremy Corbyn to put the second referendum on the party's manifesto.

Tory Labour Talks

The Tory/Labour talks on a compromise have stalled, but are set to continue next week with three working groups: on security, on environmental protection, and on workers' rights. A separate meeting is scheduled between Philip Hammond and John McDonnell, the chancellor and shadow chancellor. The big outstanding issue is the customs union. Theresa May has not yet moved on this one. We noted David Liddington, the effective deputy prime minister, saying that the minimum outcome of the talks would be an agreed and binding decision-making procedure to flush out all options but one in a series of parliamentary votes.

May’s task is to get at least half of her party on board for a compromise. What makes a deal attractive to the Tories is that May would resign soon afterwards, giving enough time for the Tory conference in October to select a successor before possible elections in early 2020. 

This relative alignment of interests is why we would not rule out a deal - either on an agreed joint future relationship, or at least on a method to deliver an outcome.

Customs Union

A customs union, depending on how it is structured, would likely be worse than remaining. The UK would have to abide by all the EU rules and regulations without having any say.

Effectively, it will not be delivering Brexit.

Perhaps May's deal has a resurrection.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-8

Who would have thought there would have been any backlash? But it looks like they're all scurrying now. Would the last one out please turn out the lights.


Labor could win big if they dump Corbin. He is pure poison.

Ted R
Ted R

British politics is even more messed up than United States politics is. If that is even possible.


The worst negotiator in history? She does have stiff competition within the Anglo-American realm. Perhaps she will pen a book on the subject in her next career phase?


"...betrayal of the greatest democratic exercise."

It is all an illusion really, to begin with. Who is running the government? Not the voters. The voters are run by the government.

I read recently that Britain rejected asylum for an Iranian who converted to Christianity and said he feared for his life as a result. The reason given was that Christianity was not a peaceful religion, citing Jesus's statement of not bringing peace but a sword as a reason to reject asylum. Prince William and his wife Kate were married in a Christian church. Yet some bureaucrat denies asylum based on the religion practiced by the royal family.

I was surprised that Cameron even allowed the vote for Brexit. From all the games that have gone on since then, it is obvious the intent has been to thwart Brexit, as the people running the government are not there for the people, but themselves.

For 4 billion dollars in loans, Ecuador hands Assange over to British police.

Russia Russia Russia.


If voting counted for anything, May would just go for a hard Brexit right now and see the Tory party sail to a massive majority in the next election.

We have to conclude that she is anti-British and anti-Tory. There is simply no way that she would be ignorant of the message in these polls. Clearly her priority is to sabotage Brexit over everything else. The fact that she is not changing course is that she clearly believes that how people will vote wont count for anything. So far she has been proved right.


Well what a to do. What nobody is taking into account is that there is as much anger on the remain side as on the Brexiteer's side. Most people in the UK never bothered about Euro elections. Turnout was roughly 30% in these elections and the odious Farage got his platform on the cheap. I don't think remainers are going to sit on their hands this time. I think they will turn out in droves. The important question to ask is what will the turnout be? If it is nearer 50% or larger then this will be a sign that remainers are getting their act together. If the turnout is 50%+ then Farage, Batten and co will be consigned to the dustbin of history and good riddance.

Global Economics