Trump Prepared to Hurt the Economy: “Security is More Important Than Trade"

-edited

In his ongoing feud with Democrats, Trump is prepared to do great harm to the economy.

The New York Times reports Trump Vows to Close Border, Even if It Hurts the Economy.

President Trump acknowledged Tuesday that closing the southern border with Mexico could damage the United States economy, but said protecting America’s security was more important than trade.

In remarks from the Oval Office, Mr. Trump reiterated his threat to shut the border if Mexico, America’s third largest trading partner, cannot restrict a flow of asylum seekers trying to cross into the United States. But the president’s economic team, concerned about the damage from such a move, said it was looking for ways to limit the fallout if Mr. Trump does do so.

“Sure, it’s going to have a negative impact on the economy,” Mr. Trump said, adding, “but security is most important.”

“Security is more important to me than trade,” he said.

Republican lawmakers, economists and business groups largely disagree with that assessment and warned this week that closing the border could cripple the flow of goods and workers and devastate American automakers and farmers, as well as other industries that depend on Mexico for sales and goods.

Economic Stupidity

It's not often I agree with the collective wisdom of economists, but this is one of those times.

I am aware of companies holding war room scenarios on how to circumvent traffic lines at border crossing choke points. Food, auto parts, medical supplies are among the impacts.

Instant Recession

A few days ago when these threats first emerged, I commented Trump Threatens to Close Entire Mexican Border: Instant Recession If Carried Out.

I am not the only one to mention the R-word. Here are some snips from the article above.

“Closing down the border would have a potentially catastrophic economic impact on our country,” Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, said in an interview. “I would hope that we would not be doing that sort of thing.”

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that “a full shutdown of the U.S.-Mexican border of more than several weeks would be the fodder for recessions in both Mexico and the U.S.”

Severe and Sudden Impact

The impact will be so severe and sudden, if Trump is foolish enough to try this, he will be forced to quickly drop it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (64)
No. 1-25
Realist
Realist

If security is important, then why is Trump ignoring what the US military says is the most pressing security issue at the moment; a need to repair all the military bases that have been damaged to the tune of more than 10 billion dollars in the last year from extreme weather events. The military is being crippled and he is ignoring their pleas.

JavaMe
JavaMe

Well, if Trump wants to take a stand on the border this is the year to do it. Border shut down would likely cause big stock sell off. Central banks will panic and maybe we see a repeat of 1998. Stocks go into 2020 with a bubble top. Republicans sweep the elections. In the meantime, might be wise to move far away from the big cities ;)

AWC
AWC

So, shutting down the legal border passes, forcing even those who cross there to cross illegally by going around the ICE on-border checkpoints, enhances national security how? Also, will air travel both ways also be closed? So much for those who think borders can't be used to keep folks in as well as out.

For sure, all those wide open, scantly patrolled border areas are going to become real busy. And those who cross there won't need to produce papers, so there won't be long waits, so there's always that.

I guess a good thing too, is, we won't have any trouble finding a parking space at the Malls, Movie Theaters and Restaurants down here, sans all those Chevy Suburbans and Escalades with the Sonora Tags.

Can't see where this won't contribute to even more empty Mall space though. And I guess we'll need to pick our own produce when the farms all go "Pick Yourself." Not sure how the folks in Montana and Idaho are going to get their salads, maybe The Donald will buy them burgers, but hold the lettuce, onions and tomatoes?

Oh well, don't let the Logic Free Zone in DC know, that ideas have consequences. Ill-advised ones, even bigger consequences. Punishing Capitalists and their employees on both sides of the border doesn't seem like a very good way to "Win Friends and Influence People," but, some folks just learn better from a Dos por Quatro upside the Cabesa.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

The democrats refuse to do anything to fix the immigration problem just because they want to make trouble for Trump. Central and South Americans got the message that anyone claiming sanctuary or with a kid will be allowed in now, and the current rate is 100,000 per month and increasing. It is an invasion and the democrats welcome it.

truthseeker
truthseeker

Damn it Mish you don’t know what the hell you r talking about when you start talking about our military and this invasion that’s taking place on our southern border. As you know I was in the Marine Corp in 1968 stationed there in California at Camp Pendleton during the Vietnam War. I absolutely loved the state every city from San Diego to LA up to Carmel, San Francisco the wine country absolutely beautiful, wonderful! Now you know I live here in Texas so I mention all this since I have a much more objective way of looking at this whole sorry ass mess that’s going on right now. First of all you have never offered any plan-are u going to delete me again? Please a little space. Ok California is a virtual sanctuary state being invaded. Now they are trying to invade Texas and down here we just think about things

Tengen
Tengen

Trump won't really pursue this, it would create too much of a red team rift. The ones in border states are already stumbling over each other to criticize any closing.

Amusing political potential aside, this is what the cool politicians today would call a nothingburger.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Trump had an offer from the Democrats for over $20 billion for the wall. He turned it down.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Finally. Expect many to join the ranks of the unemployed if the border closes for even a couple of weeks.

1KoolKat
1KoolKat

The mass of people coming up from Central America are desperately poor, so who is providing the support($$) for their trek and why? Any info anyone?

wxman40
wxman40

I prefer to think that free trade IS security between nations, but that is just Milton Friedman and I apparently.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

Trump tried the Government shutdown, and that blew up in his face.

Now he is trying his next "Reality TV Cliffhanger" threat to get everybody's attention.

This isn't about security. It isn't about immigrants. There are far better ways to address both of these issues.

It is all about Trump wanting to be the center of attention. He floats one dumb idea after another until the press [and Mish] jump up and down frantically about one of them, then he sticks to it, delighted that everybody is hanging on his every word again.

Will he or won't he? Does he understand the consequences? Chirons and worried looking CNN anchors. Fox pundits mouthing off supporting nonsense. Economists weighing in. MAGA-heads wetting their diapers about the "invasion" and "democrats refus[ing] to do anything to fix the immigration problem"

This is manna for a sad old man.

And it sells pixels. More and more pixels. And TV time. A sad old man and an industry that can't stop giving the chattering classes their fix. That is the real threat to America.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

How do you know Trump is trolling America - watch the pattern:

  1. Utter a string of increasingly dumb ideas
  2. Watch and see which make the most headlines and airtime
  3. Double down and threaten to do something as dumb a possible sometime vaguely in the future
  4. Blame the Democrats for blocking
  5. Keep bringing it up, teasing the engaged on both sides with inflammatory remarks and continual reminders that he is ready to act
  6. Every so often really do something stupid (e.g. government shutdown) to prove that he really can
  7. Keep looking for the next crazy idea that will drive the news cycle.
  8. Go to 1.
Escierto
Escierto

As I have mentioned previously I live on the border in West Texas and there are no locks on my house and the key is in the ignition of my truck parked in the driveway. There is almost no crime to speak of here and yes, we do see illegals sometimes walking along the road or camped in my pastures. The only crisis is the fear that Trump stirs up in his old white cult members.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Fear is required to be a modern conservative. If you aren’t afraid to go outside unarmed, you just don’t fit in anymore. When trump says “booga booga”, a True conservative must respond with “Aieeeeeeeeeee!”

A lot of y’all just aren’t holding up your end of the deal.

RonJ
RonJ

New York Times: "America’s third largest trading partner, cannot restrict a flow of asylum seekers trying to cross into the United States."

The NYT is propaganda. They are not seeking asylum and the NYT knows that. Their intent is to enter the U.S. illegally by falsely claiming asylum.

If not stopped, this problem will get worse and worse.

truthseeker
truthseeker

Mish well my wife says I need to apologize to you and stay off your blog if not forever at least for the rest of lent. So I’m sorry I let my emotions get out of hand last night. She also said I was obsessed with all this and my comments were goofy and off the subject...........

TheGreatMiginty
TheGreatMiginty

Trucks and trade OPEN, People traffic CLOSED

Blacklisted
Blacklisted

How do you place a value on the lost and ruined lives caused by human and drug trafficking, especially when so many children are involved in the sex trade. It's time to bite the bullet and shut down the easy pathway for these sick f*cks.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

Without large scale immigration America will be a dying nation in 50 years like Japan and Italy. We need more people, but some of us want them to be the right color.

Steve King is at least honest about his bigotry - he knows we need more babies, but thinks that "other people's babies" will not maintain "our civilization".

We have been though this story time and time again in this country (the tale of the right and wrong immigrant). In previous times it has been poor Scots who were the wrong type of immigrant, many chased out by the Highland Clearances followed by the Highland Potato Famine.

Then it was the turn of the Irish. The Italians were seen as a major source of disruption to civilization - in 1891 eleven Italians were lynched in New Orleans and this continued into the 1920's.

Central Americans are just the latest "wrong" immigrants.

But if we'd built a wall across the Atlantic and stopped all the Italians then there would be no pizza, no Joe DiMaggio, and if the native Americans had a Trump as their leader in 1492, no Christopher Columbus. (Yes, I know).

;)

Mostly Bored
Mostly Bored

Let me get this right. The President is "Prepared to Hurt the Economy".