Trump Will Easily Be Defeated in 2020, Perhaps a Landslide

Mish

Trump will go down in flames in 2020. Let's discuss why, along with my one caveat.

Before going into my rationale, please note that I voted for Trump against Hillary in 2016 and would do so again.

This call is based on my analysis of the setup, not political wishes.

I cannot recall the last time I voted for a Democrat for president, but I did not vote for Bush in either 2000 or 2004. I voted Libertarian.

This Is Not 2016

It's important to note that this is not 2016. Trump was never well liked, but Hillary was despised.

Yet, despite the fact that Hillary was despised, Trump barely won. People pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. In reality, they were lucky.

I had the election as a toss up until the last debate. Trump totally blew that last debate. I then called it for Hillary.

No one could have foreseen that Comey would come out of the blue at the last moment with a blast at Hillary. I believe that tipped the election.

It also took a completely foolish campaign by Hillary, ignoring key states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

Democrats will not make the same mistakes in 2020.

Caveat

My one caveat in my prediction is that neither Elizabeth Warren nor Bernie Sanders nor Amy Klobuchar wins the Democratic nomination.

Klobuchar is polling at 3-5% so she is an enormous longshot.

Given that Warren is slipping in the polls, and rightfully so, I do not expect any of those to happen.

Warren is a radical left Marxist.

To understand Warren, please consider Elizabeth Warren Has a Bad Plan for Everything.

Warren is just the kind of lightning rod that Trump could defeat.

I commented How to Re-Elect Trump in One Easy Lesson, nominate Warren.

Trump vs Biden, Sanders, Warren

Please consider Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds.

Those polls are very stale (November), but they accurately reflect my thoughts.

Go to 270 to Win, and flip just three states, say Wisconsin (I believe a given), Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

2016 With PA, WI, MI Flipped

Plausible Scenario

That is a very plausible scenario and in fact close to my baseline. The Democrats could easily flip Arizona and North Carolina as well.

No Repudiation?

Anis Shivani at Counterpunch.org comments Donald Trump Will Easily Be Reelected: There's Been No Repudiation Of What He Represents and There Won't Be.

Now vs Then

I strongly disagree.

What got Trump elected is not what will get him re-elected.

In the UK, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn made the same foolish mistake. Corbyn was never elected but Theresa May lost her majority to Labout in 2017.

Corbyn attributed that to leftist policy as opposed to a piss poor campaign by May. He thus went with an even more radical Left campaign as noted in Jeremy Corbyn Goes for Broke With Last Desperate Act, US Democrats Take Note.

If the Democrats go nuts as noted in my caveat above, yep, I have to reconsider.

Trump Arrogance

Trump is acting in many ways, just like Corbyn. And his supporters are cheering him on.

Face the facts: Trump is an arrogant bully, one of the biggest narcissist political leaders the world has ever seen, and a complete jackass to alleged allies.

Independents could possibly overlook that vs Warren, but not against Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, or Pete Buttigieg.

Strongest Economy Ever?

I vehemently disagree with Barry Ritholtz on economic policy, unions, etc.

But here a Ritholtz post that caught my eye, simply based on facts: Economic Errors Right Wing Edition

Simply put, this isn't the strongest economy ever. And wage growth in particular has been abysmal.

Steel Futures

Trump's trade policy has been a disaster to both farmers and the steel industry.

Farming woes are well understood, but steel is another matter.

Reality

Trump is polling about 43% according to up-to-date Approval Ratings despite a record high stock market, plentiful jobs, and allegedly the best economy in decades.

**How unpopular is Donald Trump?**​

Wow. Let that sink in. Trump ought to be polling 60% or higher with that economic report.

What happens if the stock market drop? Heck what happens even if it doesn't?

Once again this reminds me of the UK election.

On November 18, with the election on December 12, I made this observation in Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit:

"This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it's primarily about Corbyn."

Right Slogan, Wrong Year

Similarly, and unless the Democrats are willing to nominate another lightning rod, this election, unlike the last, will be about "anyone but Trump".

Appealing to the Base

Trump is making the same mistake that Corbyn did: Appeal to the radicals.

Trump is no longer bothering to appeal to the base, he has gone one further to appeal to radicals.

I have news for everyone who has not thought about this.

Base and Radicals Aren't Going Anywhere

The base and the radical right wingers are going anywhere. The core conservatives and the radical conservatives will never vote Democratic.

It is not the core that Trump needs to win over, rather it is the independents.

The independents, me included, did vote for Trump in 2016.

On average, I believe the swing voters and independents that carried the day for Trump have finally had enough for all the reasons stated above.

It will no longer take a recession to beat Trump, all Democrats have to do is stay away from the likes of Warren.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock​

Comments (149)
No. 1-50
Latkes
Latkes

Which specific radicals is Trump appealing to?

lol
lol

Obama and Trump facing almost identical relection situations,ie a dead rotting economy propped up by trillions (maybe quadrillions)printed every month to (barely)keep the economy functioning,soaring deficits,depts,soaring bloated hopelessly bankrupt govt,except with Trump it's 10x worse.Give the dude credit,at least Trump tried,Obama spent 8 years just riding the clock.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

I have not seen one democrat candidate or potential candidate that is not either far left (commie) or an idiot. The vote boils down to being for America or against America. That stuff about not liking The Donald's personality amounts to: nothing. Anyone that would run for POTUS has to be a supreme egotist.

Harbour
Harbour

Mish keep to finance - your TDS makes the US election a blind spot. There is no one who can beat Trump.

lovechina
lovechina

If defeated Mr. Trump will, for the sake of American People interest, dissolve congress, abolish the institute. Establish a Trump Republic of America

jivefive99
jivefive99

If we Democrats want to dump Trump, and avoid King Donald, Queen Ivanka and King Junior, all we have to do is show up and vote. 2018 proved that. Not an easy task when the young people naturally want to party all night and sleep in all day. But anyway ... I myself voted for Donald in 2016 because, more than any other issue: "It's the economy, stupid." Im surrounded by friends who I really dont think will have a dime when they turn 70. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Hillary didnt care about jobs. She cared about Wall Street and Hollywood. Couldnt vote for her. At least Trump would go to econonic war with China. Im not sure what Im gonna do because Biden is a carbon copy of Hillary: sat there for 40 years while jobs left. Mayor Pete might be fun to watch ...

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Good piece. A different pov, intelligently articulated: https://amgreatness.com/2019/12/29/trumps-failures/

It could all be kabuki, but perhaps we are in for a little bit of political cataclysm in the States. Although I find it hard to believe the system will air its own dirty laundry in public, nevertheless things are shaping up for quite a climactic Season Finale in the Trump Reality TV Presidency. If the whole NSA-FISA-FBI-CIA-Senators-Media thing blows up - as looks like it might in next few months - all bets are off in terms of the Presidential Election.

And also, Trump is only 5 RINO votes away from being the first US President in history to be both impeached and removed after a Senate trial. I wouldn't be at all surprised if in next few days some heavy bombshell stuff doesn't come out coinciding with the Senate getting ready for some motions needing only 51 votes to pass determining much of the trial process. Quite possibly the Dems will get their witnesses passed in such motions but the R's will not since Trump's witnesses will expose how rotten is the State of Denmark whereas the D's witnesses will only show how Trump truly is Orange Man Bad like they have been insisting all along. Past history suggests the Senate might well turn in favor of the Swamp and against an narcissistic interloper. The denouement of all this, however it plays out, might change many electoral equations.

If they take Trump out in an unconvincing fashion, the country will be the closest to breaking up since the Civil War. The chances of their doing that is slim so most likely we'll get an acquittal and more talking points war. But it's going to be an extremely hostile, and increasingly uncivil election since impeachment will be seen as a major crime the other side has perpetrated, i.e. both sides will be demonizing the other no holds barred. Nasty.

If Trump is still standing, he wins, but the country might never survive the ordeal.

But until the FISA business plays out, I think it's too early to call. That whole business could end up being a real game-changer politically. I think your analysis above makes a lot of sense. But if it turns out that affair features a solid Trump counter punch exposing many bad actors who have not been playing fair, most likely he's going to get more like 330, and also both House and Senate.

Ted R
Ted R

What actual crimes did Trump commit?? Answer: Not one. Here is what really is happening so pay careful attention. That liberal commie Ruth Bader Ginsberg is about to croak opps I mean die. Hopefully that happy day arrives sooner than later. Trump will get the chance to appoint a real conservative to the Supreme Court and then the court can begin to undo 50 plus years of liberal Anti-American court rulings and the liberal establishment can't stand for that to happen so in complete desperation they concoct a bogus and fake impeachment to try to prevent the President from getting the chance to replace that worthless Ginsburg with a true American Justice. And that is what this whole impeachment circus is all about. My opinion but I think I am 100% correct.

Axiom7
Axiom7

Would you be willing to bet on this prediction or is this just for fun?

Greggg
Greggg

Thee most accurate predictions of the 2016 election was Styxhexenhammer666. Let's see what his latest about Trump is. You might also check out Scott Adams, who went public and predicted a Trump win even though he knew he would lose a large portion of his followers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjFa97MIbO4

Tengen
Tengen

I'm still assuming Trump will win in 2020, but I have no data to back it up. Nobody has failed in a reelection bid since 1992. The DNC won't nominate Bernie, so one of the other blue teamers would have to win.

More importantly, it doesn't really matter whether he wins or not. After the Iraq strikes this weekend, it's another sign that he'll allow himself to be dragged into a confrontation with Iran. Either Trump is powerless to prevent it or he's complicit, but the result is the same either way. Foreign policy was the only reason to have any optimism about Trump so there is nothing left to support. Otherwise he's just a guy with an irrational love of tariffs who constantly whines for the Fed to keep cutting rates. Any mainstream politician can snuggle up to the Fed and rely on cheap money.

Other than social mood not much would change if Trump or the blue team wins, just like it didn't change when Obama took over for Bush or Trump took over for Obama. It doesn't take much intelligence or insight to know that there will be a lot of debt and social strife in the US and globally in the coming years.

truthseeker
truthseeker

I agree with Mish yet I hope he is wrong. Let me say what I really hope. I hope something else happens to Trump that senate Republicans can’t ignore, so they literally throw him out of office. Trump has conservative values, but is such a screwball-according to Laura Ingraham-that his way of running the country is, at least to me, embarrassing and more polarizing than even Obama! Pence also embraces conservative values and instincts without all the crazy stuff with whom we could rally behind to bring the country back together hopefully.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Mish keep to finance - your TDS makes the US election a blind spot. There is no one who can beat Trump."

One has to be TDS-Deranged to accuse me of having TDS

What a moron

wootendw
wootendw

"People pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. In reality, they were lucky."

No, with me it was NOT luck. I predicted Trump would win and won a dinner bet with a friend over it. My reasoning was based historical analysis.

Whenever the presidency changes hands, the winner is the one who is, at least, perceived to be an 'outsider'. I only count three elections - 1840, 1920 and 1988 -where the insider wins if the presidency changes hands.

Typical 'outsiders' who win the presidency are governors. They aren't necessarily outsiders - Jimmy Carter belonged to some international groups - but they are perceived as such.

Who is an insider? Two examples are sitting vice presidents and sitting Senators. Only two sitting vice presidents have been elected president - Van Buren and Bush 41. And just three sitting Senators have ever been elected - Harding, Kennedy and Obama. Kennedy ran against a sitting vice president. Obama ran against another sitting Senator, McCain, who had been 'sitting' for quite a few more terms than Obama.

Hillary was the ultimate insider even though she was not in office when she ran. She had been a former 'hands on' first lady, a former New York senator and a former Secretary of State.

Trump was the ultimate outsider. If it weren't for revelations about his vulgar talk on Howard Stern, he would have beaten Hillary by a landslide.

So who will win in 2020? Most likely it will be the one perceived as an outsider. Trump is supposed to be an insider now except when he's being himself. The only outsider running for the Dems is Butti-whatever.

I hope the Dems nominate someone else because I am so sick of war that it now overrides every other issue combined. I'd rather have fucking Marxist for peace than warmongering killer like Bush, even if I agreed with the warmonger on every domestic issue.

wxman
wxman

Regarding the EC map, note even Biden is going to take FL in this cycle. It is going to go more red this time. NC too. AZ is a tossup. If Biden is the nominee you can put PA and WI back in the blue column which leaves OH and MI as must haves for Trump and the true battleground states.

This Dem field is too left for them to wrest AZ away and most voters there will just sit this one out or they could fall heavily into a Libertarian candidate like Hornberger splitting off the independent vote from turning the state blue.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Certainly it will be an interesting election. Common wisdom would be that a candidate can not have all the major media against him and win. Yet common wisdom would also tell you can in a strong economy the incumbent should win. I think that in the end, the election will be about which of these becomes the most powerful narrative. Can the media keep Trump on his heels? Can Trump generate enough advertising to frame the issue as one based on the economy?

Other minor issues also remain unresolved. Will manufacturing employees continue to support him, despite the fact that tariffs don't work? Will farmers continue to support him, despite the losses that farmers have suffered? Will blacks, and other minorities cross over, realizing that they have benefited from Trump policies more than expected?

At this point, I have only questions, not answers. There is far too much that is unresolved for me to know how things will develop. The only thing I know for sure is that Trump has destroyed the traditional Republican party, and made it into something different than it was, and that the Socialists, meanwhile, are destroying the traditional Democrat party, and also making it into something different than it was.

My one prediction is that all of these changes are the beginning of a tectonic shift. The politics of the 20th Century were largely about race. The politics of the 21st Century will be about age.

djhowls
djhowls

Hillary is going to run again though. It's obvious she will swoop in at the last minute HA Goodman has been on the money since 2015 There is no Democratic party- only the Clinton machine

Sechel
Sechel

ignore national polls. trump will lose by a larger margin than last time. what's not certain is the electoral results. its all about 7 battleground states and i'm not certain on that count. no one is

JonSellers
JonSellers

This is really a game of who shows up. Trump supporters will vote in mass. Will people show up to vote for Biden? I don't think so. Will Joe Lunchbucket be showing up for Klobuchar or Bloomberg? I don't think so. I tend to think people would show up to vote for the hard-core radical, Maoist, baby-killers like Warren or Sanders, but they will never, ever be allowed to defeat Biden by The Party.

SpeedyGeezer
SpeedyGeezer

Even though it is way too early, it is fun to speculate!! Here's my analysis.

There is significant risk that the Ds will nominate a fatally flawed candidate. As of now, I think Sanders is the favorite for that role. He has the most ardent group of supporters. He is likely to win both Iowa and NH. And the field around him is very weak. Good chance that he goes to the convention with the most delegates, but not a majority. After 2016, the DNC and their MSM friends are going to have a hard time stealing the nomination from him if he has the most delegates going into Milwaukee The problem with Sanders is he will not change his platform or his style for love or money. He has been consistent for decades. No turning back or tacking to the center. In this case, Bernie's integrity will be a curse more than a blessing.

On the other hand, there is also a significant risk that Trump head into the general election with further war wounds (including self-inflicted ones) that alienate I's and moderates. It is clear that the House is going to keep digging right up until November and that the MSM will amplify anything negative about Trump with minimal, if any, regard for the truth. There are numerous leakers and anti-Trumpers in the WH, who will provide plenty of grist for the mill. Moreover, Trump himself provides a bonanza of material for the House to investigate and for the MSM to promote.

Taking all of this into account, I think that Bernie will get the nomination and lose to Trump. There is plenty not to like about DJT. But in the end, voters in AZ, GA, FL, NC, OH and WI will narrowly stick with the devil they know. Bernie may well flip PA and MI. Senate tightens to 51-49 and D's keep the House and elect a new, more liberal speaker. And the rock throwing continues..........

Let's revisit after NH, but before Super Tuesday. A lot will be happening on both sides between now and then!!

tz3
tz3

I don't see how the human gaffe generator, all seven dwarves, can win against Trump. With his Hunter problems. Creepy, Gropey, Grifty, Gaffey, Grabby, Mumbles, and Schlock.

Also see StyxHexen above.

This is nearly identical to the setup when Gingrich ran on "Clinton man bad!" but not on any policies. And in an off year election the GOP lost seats in a landslide.

Unless something really, really, bad happens to the Economy, Trump will win in a landslide, and take the house with him with very long coat-tails.

The Democrats have to have someone who can fight, and actually fight the right battles. Ted Cruz tried "Orange Man really bad" and lost. The only threat in the field was Montana's governor - a deep Red State democrat. He got 0%. Tulsi and Yang are the only adults on the stage and I can disagree but they aren't crazy-stupid-evil, the rest are too "green". Medicare for all? Banning coal and fossil fuel vehicles? And intersectional identity? Maybe if Biden transitions and runs as the first Trans-Woman president and promises everyone can use the restroom they identify as.

Another thing that might happen is RBG departs just in time to make it a referrendum on whether the next 30 years will be under the constitution, or venezuelan oligicarchic kritarchy.

I see nothing in your discussion that argues the actual nominee can beat Trump in a campaign. Right now, it is the real ugly orange man v.s. a theoretical flawless democrat. But all the democrats are fatally flawed, even now (have you seen the latest Biden gaffes - just the last two weeks means he will lose Bigly). There is not a large enough #NeverTrump vote. There is a fairly stable #4More vote. You don't have to convince yourself, you have to convince the moderate middle, e.g. the Matt Taibbis and Tim Pools of the world, and the latter has daily coverage he doesn't want to do explaining why the Democrats are a dumpster fire running down a steep hill that will crash and still burn.

Trump would be easy to beat. Only not by anything the Democrats would permit to fight, either candidates or policies.

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

Mish,

Interesting analysis. I think you’re right. This will be a referendum on Trump vs 2016 which was much more of a referendum on Clinton.

The wildcard is: will the Dems be “unifiable” enough coming out of what could easily be a disaster of a convention to actually make this an “anybody but Trump” election?

All sane Reps want the Supreme Court picked by Trump.

The “Ginsburg” Wildcard

If Ginsburg were to announce she’s leaving ahead of the election (which would be clear election interference), lookout...

Hansa Junchun
Hansa Junchun

Hello Mish, whether Trump wins or loses depends on neither polls nor personalities. Hillat was despised but it was Obama's economic policies that secured her defeat. The personal economic well-being of the swing-state voters you identified matters more than the persons in the running.

Professors Helmut Norpoth and Allan Lichtman are independent researchers with independent election forecasting questionnaires. And yet, both of them are singularly successful in predicting presidential election outcomes. Their questionnaires focus exclusively on personal economics. Nothing else. Based on this information, they independently determine whether the election favors the incumbent or the challenger. In May 2016, they both said Trump would win, even before he secured the nomination. They were alone in their prediction. They were right.

And at least Professor Allan Lichtman is saying that Trump will win again. His questionnaire shows is. "Barring some unforeseen development, Trump will win 2020," he lamented, for he is a proud and vocal Democrat. He has given many warnings to his party to take his findings seriously. Professor Norpoth has not given an early opinion, as far as I know. But since he and Lichtman have been flawless since they started predicting in 1984, they deserve to be taken seriously.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab

Thanks for a thoughtful argument with the facts to support it. I agree it will be close if the right person can face off against Trump. A Democrat ticket with Hillary, Warren, Sanders, Biden, or Butt Grease should logically not win unless the markets crash--they are all flawed. However, the right combo will appeal.

spitituscanus
spitituscanus

seems like you are assuming all the blue states from 2016 will remain blue------so many blacks and independents have left the democrats that may not be the case--then what?------perhaps another hole in a supposed "blue wall"

Tawdzilla
Tawdzilla

Re: calling the race now...it’s way too early to call anything yet. We don’t even know who the Dem nominee is or if there will be legit 3rd party contender.

Re: voting for Trump alternative...me thinks the Trump bashers (like Mish) will hold their nose and vote for Trump in 2020 due to no good alternatives, in a time of RELATIVE peace and prosperity.

aqualech
aqualech

At this point, I despise all of the offered options on either side almost equally. Trump, true to history, is not acting at all as he promised in the campaign. The prospect of any of the Dem offerings is sickening, but who knows what they would really do if elected. Maybe something more like what Trump promised. Makes one want to move to Chile.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

Don't jump the gun Mish - the Democratic nominee hasn't been prepared for reception by the other side yet - once the election gets underway, there will lots of reasons to hate them and vote for Trump. The Republicans know that Trump won't be voted "for" by a majority, so they need to get people to vote "against" his opponent. Revisit this column in August 2020 and see what changes.

Brother
Brother

No one can predict the stupidity of voters. The amount negative press against Trump can’t be won. It’s election meddling by the US media and digital media. The democratic party turned itself into the anti American party as for if congress follows suit on mass chaos is yet to be seen but from what we are hearing they want to steal an election. Warrens "Marshall plan for wealthy nations" is insanity.

Purvis Lebone
Purvis Lebone

Gutsy call this early. Your analysis is shaded by your distaste for Trump, if you can't keep name calling out of your case, it is weak. Trump is no more an arrogant bully today than he was in 2016. I think you are very wrong, looking forward to you gobbling crow.

awc13
awc13

binden is a bigger idiot than trump is, by far. scary to think of biden as president

awc13
awc13

God help us all if this idiot gets elected

Mish
Mish

Editor

"You spent a long winded article arguing a concept when all it comes down to is there is no one who can beat Trump. That is TDS."

Ironically, exactly correct. Harbour accuses me of TDS when he is the one who has it.

This is TDS at its finest "there is no one who can beat Trump"

Yep, pure TDS

Sechel
Sechel

i certainly hope Trump loses, but if he does lose it could be a first, an incumbent president losing with a strong economy. if its happened before it must be ancient history

JMOD46
JMOD46

"Democrats will not make the same mistakes in 2020."

Exactly right. They will make other, equally fatal, mistakes. Just like the generals fighting the last war. Usually, the Republicans are the party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But recently, the Democrats have been in the "here, hold my beer" competition mode.

BillofNorthbrook
BillofNorthbrook

Couple of points.

  1. We have many months to go, and 10 months is a lifetime in politics..
  2. His rallies are vehicles for Trump to not only rally and invigorate the troops, but to recruit on the ground workers via their emails. His success depends on having a massive number of workers on the ground.. In 2016 he had 600,000 on the ground workers..In 2020 he is planning on 1.3 million according to the man who runs is computer database.
  3. The black vote is in play. If he can get 15 percent, instead of the 7 % in 2016 that would make some difference in Florida, PA and Michigan.
  4. How accurate are the polls we are seeing. Do we really believe that 54% believe Trump should be impeached AND REMOVED. I don't believe it.
  5. Brexit and the recent vote in UK has some meaning about the flow of history against globalization. Way TOO EARLY TO BET.
JMOD46
JMOD46

Mish:

The great bulk of your argument seems to revolve around what the polls are saying now. Unless you think the polls now have a sudden accuracy and predictive ability they didn't have in 2016, I can't buy your argument. And if you do think the polls are more accurate now, what evidence do you have for that?

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Why does Mish's prediction remind me of George Costanza?

GruesomeHarvest
GruesomeHarvest

Trump will only lose if the economy heads south.

Three years of constant anti Trump rhetoric in the MSM has only strength Trump's support from those who voted for him.

Mish must have got an early start on his New Years celebration.

Ebowalker
Ebowalker

This is nonsense. A lot can happen in 11 months and any predictions made now are a pure guess.

Mike2112
Mike2112

The young Bernie/Warren/Yang voters are not going to vote for Billionaore Mike or Establishment Biden; The moderate dems--the upper middle class and higher suburban soccer moms wont vote for the above Leftists b/c they will get pillaged in taxes and the corporate MSM will diligently educate them b/c the wealthy ppl who own DC are not going to sit by and watch the Left raid their wealth.

Unless the dems pull off a magic fusion ticket that satisfies both factions then expect the younger dems to go start their own party. They're not going to stick around if they dont get what they want this time around.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"The young Bernie/Warren/Yang voters are not going to vote for Billionaire Mike or Establishment Biden;"

Then who the Hell will they vote for? OK Let's presume No one. But what about all the swing voters who voted Trump and now can't stand him?

Will they vote for Trump?

Sheeesh this is so simple

abend237-04
abend237-04

It's early, but I believe an idiot could lose to The Donald. Biden could do it. He can't go a day without saying something stupid and he has to make it to November. I agree that the middle always decides national elections and the menagerie of leftists now running all scare the hell out of anyone with a balanced world view and old enough to vote. Also, there's the issue of incumbency to consider. It's extremely difficult to dislodge an incumbent president, even a donkey like Donald. The last time it happened was Slick Willie's defeat of Bush Senior, running on "It's the economy, stupid." Ironically, Clinton took office during the second quarter of the Bush recovery. Yes, his campaign was that bad and unleashed the Clintons from Little Rock on the innocent world.

Mike2112
Mike2112

Some will stay home, like they did last time. And yes, some DID vote for Trump. 10% of counties won by Trump voted for Obama in 2008 AND 2012. And the Blue Collars are doing even better now than 2016 as far as jobs go. Who do you think they're going to vote for? Tell me the dem candidate that isnt going full job-killing Climate Change jihad that blue collar workers can vote for?

TCW
TCW

He's safe unless the dems can find another Obamo. I don't see any of the current goobers beating him.

Bastiat
Bastiat

Biden would be a godsend for Trump. All he has to do is play over and over that video of Biden boasting about bribing the Ukrainian president to fire the prosecutor investigating his crackhead son's company. The choice would be between a horrible narcissistic bully and a corrupt senile old man. Pretty easy choice for voters.

AndrewUK
AndrewUK

I rather hope Trump gets a second term and the Republicans gain control of the House. And if this happens I hope Trump will unleash the wrath of God on the 'deep State' who have hounded him for the last four years. It is time the stables were mucked out and the rampant corruption exposed. There needs to be a parade of criminal trials.

Herkie
Herkie

"The base and the radical right wingers are going anywhere. The core conservatives and the radical conservatives will never vote Democratic."


Mish I agree with almost everything in this post today, except for that which I quoted above. You must remember that it is right leaning voters that are more likely to register as independents and thos are the voters that got Trump into office with the slimmest of margins, there are not enough registered republicans to elect a president, they HAVE to get a substantial part of the independent voters.

The base.... By that I am guessing you mean the Trump base because the GOP base of yesteryear is not very happy with Trump, and while few will opt to vote against Trump many will for once just not vote at all. The old GOP has been taken over by a cult of personality which many true conservatives find an utter embarrassment. Radical right wingers - well they are a lost cause anyway, they are not going to vote for Trump but against whatever tinfoil hat notions they are nursing this election cycle.

On the other hand, you have democrats extremely motivated in 2020 and both house and senate races which were in the GOP's favor in 2016 with more vulnerable seats of democrats, this time it is the other way around. This time it is GOP seats that are more vulnerable. It will only take 3 senate seats to switch from GOP for the senate to be 50/50, four for the democrats to control both houses. 11 GOP seats are safe, 7 likely, and 2 leaning. Out of 35 up for grabs. On the other side you have 6/4/1. But the point is 21 of the 35 seats up for this election round are GOP. And there are some notably weak candidates like McSally and Collins. I would not give Collins even a 50/50 at this point. Her vote vor confirmation of Kavanaugh absolute fired up voters in Maine, and more than $4 million in a campaign war chest awaits the democrat that was crowd funded in the weeks after the confirmation hearings.

Senate races were at least a factor in the 2016 race when it was more democrat seats than republican and the opposite is going to be true in 2020.

All the democrats need for a landslide is for republicans to just sit it out in disgust and there are a lot of people in key swing states now that may never vote democrat but this time will just stay home because they cannot vote Trump again.

shred1
shred1

Mish, when it comes to politics, stick to economics, please. Here's your article in 2016 that says "is it possible Trump is throwing the election," LOL.

Kimo
Kimo

My pardon if it's been mentioned, but in 2016 many handed the keys to the White House to an untested citizen, who had no public office experience. Now, 2020 comes into play with "the devil I know".
Tulsi is the only other candidate that might continue to drain the swamp, and reduce our overseas military footprint/exposure. She has my attention. Lots of water will pass under the bridge before I cast my vote.