Tweet's of the Day: GDP Peaked This Cycle?

Year-over-year GDP growth hit +2.9% on Friday. HedgEye is calling the peak.

"Year-over-year GDP growth of +2.9% should be the peak of the cycle for the USA," tweeted Keith McCullough this morning. "That's our call and we're sticking to it."

I am not quite sure what HedgEye means by "cycle". I see higher year-over-year gains.

Draghi Blames the Weather

No Bubble in Wages

Peak Confidence in Government?

Officially Admitted Nonperforming Loans in China

What's the real story?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (13)
No. 1-13
SweetKenny
SweetKenny

Asking China for official stats on non-performing loans is like asking a woman how many guys she slept with, whatever the number, double it.

Ambrose_Bierce
Ambrose_Bierce

They aren't looking in the right places, sure there is a hotel tax, but not a service tax and service workers who have the highest rate of inflation. Alternately if you receive a free service, meals on wheels, or something, they should count that. The point is that nonprofits do a lot of the heavy lifting in this economy, they should at least count it, even if they don't tax it, and then they can say at some point in the future we need to improve revenues in the interest of tax fairness lets consider this. There is really nothing wrong with this economy just economists stuck with the same data they used in the 1960s. The service sector is growing the fastest, I realize that Tax and Spend is what government does, lately they just forgot the first part

Matt Foley
Matt Foley

Good one! But I thought the rule was triple it. That goes for China too!

Wagner-
Wagner-

@Mish why did you repost OccupyWisdom who is comparing "Real wages" with "Nominal asset prices" to create attention screaming chart?

You compare nominal with nominal. And real with real. You never compare nominal with real.

The nominal wage chart looks more like this -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Db2wF3GWkAEEVVs.jpg - sorry did not have a time to find better chart. As can be seen nominal wages from 1985 to 2002 increased almost by a factor of 2.