Tweet's of the Day: GDP Peaked This Cycle?

Year-over-year GDP growth hit +2.9% on Friday. HedgEye is calling the peak.

"Year-over-year GDP growth of +2.9% should be the peak of the cycle for the USA," tweeted Keith McCullough this morning. "That's our call and we're sticking to it."

I am not quite sure what HedgEye means by "cycle". I see higher year-over-year gains.

Draghi Blames the Weather

No Bubble in Wages

Peak Confidence in Government?

Officially Admitted Nonperforming Loans in China

What's the real story?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

No. 1-13

I actually did not do any math there. I just explained to you how to interpret charts correctly.


Actually Wilshere 5000 did not increase 14x from 1985-2002 (the period I referred to). It increased only 7x. Just like you need to match nominal with nominal you also need to match periods when comparing wages and assets. The nominal wages have actually increased more than 2x from 1985-2018 when Wilshere increased those 14x that you used as a reference.

Can I suggest that accessibility to stock market has made people to switch to asset that are earning income instead of assets like gold? And perhaps it can explain to some extent this trend of higher stock valuations?

Of course, agreeably, stock prices are high right now according to CAPE ratio , but the OccupyWisdom chart would make one incorrectly think that Wilshere 5000 would have to nominally fall 6x to "get back to normal" with the incorrectly used lagging real wages. How about falling only 2 times to "get back to normal" with lagging nominal wages?

Isn't there a huge difference between 6x vs 2x?


"What's the real story?" That which they aren't telling us. Junker said that when it is serious, they have to lie.


"Peak Confidence in Government?" Didn't that boat sail a long time ago? Government has made housing unaffordable, education unaffordable and medical unaffordable, not to mention made government pensions unaffordable.