UK Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn Makes Fundamental Mistake

Mish

Corbyn made not one but two fundamental mistakes this week by ruling out a no-deal Brexit.

Brexit Central reports Jeremy Corbyn is wrong to rule out No Deal and risks keeping Labour out of power for another generation.

After the Prime Minister’s catastrophic defeat in the House of Commons and after scraping home in the No Confidence debate, Theresa May finally extended an offer to opposition parties to meet with her to discuss the way forward. While all opposition parties oppose a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, Jeremy refused to meet with the Prime Minister until she was prepared to rule out No Deal.

In ruling out the prospect of No Deal, a future Labour Government would risk losing all leverage. One cannot imagine the late Bob Crow or the General Secretary of Unite, Len McCluskey, ruling out ‘No Deal’ when negotiating with employers.

An overwhelming majority of Labour constituencies voted to leave the European Union – around 70%. Estimates of up to 40% of Labour voters in 2017 supported Leave. 78% of the seats Labour has to take from the Tories to win the next general election voted Leave. 72% of Labour’s 25 most vulnerable seats voted Leave.

All parties committed to leaving the European Union by accepting the outcome of the referendum. Labour needs to win back its traditional heartland support that has maintained the party since its inception. We will not do this by supporting a second referendum and we will not do this by accepting any terms offered to us by Brussels. The British people are for Brexit; let Labour be their champion by backing a World Trade Brexit.

Seeking the Impossible

Brexit Central is correct on all of the above. But it missed a key point.

Corby asked for the impossible.

He is against May's deal, against a no-deal Brexit, and against a referendum to not leave. His stance is logically impossible.

Logical Impossibility

The one legal certainty in this mess is that a no-deal Brexit is the default option. May could not possibly commit to ruling out a no-deal Brexit because the only two options on the table are May's deal and a no-deal Brexit.

Corbyn can rule out one or the other but not both.

Like it or not, those are the options. Neither May nor Corbyn gets to choose a third option because the EU would have to agree with it.

Corbyn's Ploy

Corbyn wants one and only one thing: Elections. He does not give a damn thing about what the Labour party wants.

If a policy doesn't potentially lead to elections he wants no part of it.

Moreover, Corbyn has other constraints. He had to rule out another referendum because his party doesn't want one, nor does the public at large, and finally there are only about 70 MPs or so who do want another referendum.

Referendum Isn't Happening

A referendum simply isn't happening when neither the Tories nor Labour nor the population wants one.

I called that long ago. And it should be clear by now, but remainers still cling to the silly notion.

Curiously, the longer remainers cling to the belief that a referendum is possible, the more likely a no-deal Brexit wins out.

Why?

It prevents a majority for any other option and by default no-deal wins.

Referendum is Out, Elections Not

A referendum is out, but elections aren't.

May walks a very fine line. If she upsets DUP or enough Tories they will vote with Corbyn on another motion of no confidence.

That's the second part of Corbyn's ploy.

The question at hand is whether Corbyn strengthened his hand by walking out of negotiations. I suspect he did. But it was at an expense. The expense is an increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.

My Take

The UK should leave and be done with it. May gave away huge bargaining chips for nothing. There are now three bargaining chips: EU payments, Fishing rights, German car exports with Trump again threatening tariffs.

The way to a good Canada-Plus arrangement is to walk away with a short Brexit extensions to put enough pieces in place to support a smooth transition.

Theresa May stated all along that no deal was better than a bad deal. By an overwhelming vote, MPs said May struck not a bad deal, but a horrendous one.

It's time for Plan B: WTO-Brexit.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (22)
No. 1-13
wootendw
wootendw

"May walks a very fine line. If she upsets DUP or enough Tories they will vote with Corbyn on another motion of no confidence..."

...knowing that Corbyn has blown it for Labour by taking 'no deal' off the table.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

The EU wants the deal more than PM May. When the deal was voted down, it was a direct statement against the EU, but everyone seems oblivious to that fact.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"When the deal was voted down, it was a direct statement against the EU, but everyone seems oblivious to that fact."

Bingo - But it was not that the deal was voted down. Rather it was voted down by the biggest margin in history, by far!

Mish
Mish

Editor

"...knowing that Corbyn has blown it for Labour by taking 'no deal' off the table."

Likely - Not certain. It is a high-risk strategy that is more likely than not to lose. But it increases the payout on a win.

gregggg
gregggg

leicestersq
leicestersq

Mish,

his stance is an impossible one because that is what the MPs want. The only way to explain what is going on is to use a conspiracy theory, nothing else works.

The plot is fairly simple. The MPs cannot tell us that they are trying to frustrate Brexit directly. So they simply obfuscate and use procedure and take positions that guarantee no solution. Then they say that they need more time and they will keep buying time until they feel that they can drop the whole Brexit thing altogether.

If the MPs had wanted to solve it, then it would have been simple. Have a vote on the deal, and if it is voted down then it is a hard brexit. A simple choice, one of two, and there would have been no option but to solve the problem.

If however, you are deliberately trying to frustrate the issue, create 3 solutions and ensure no solution has a majority, which is what they have done.

The irony with Corbyn is that he is supposedly hard left. If you really were hard left, you would want a hard Brexit, and strict immigration rules to protect the workers of your nation from competition and to maximise the supply of land to them for housing to keep their costs down. Instead the Labour party want as many people as possible to come to the UK, driving down wages and driving up the rents of the very people that they are supposed to support.

As for getting a better deal, hard brexit is a brilliant deal from the UK's point of view. No wonder they want to stop us from getting it.

Blurtman
Blurtman

May is terrible about acting out the Kabuki theater. There is no intention to Brexit.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

"EU payments, Fishing rights, German car exports with Trump again threatening tariffs."

These are three cards in the U.K.'s hand. However there are also cards in the E.U.'s hand - and basically foot dragging on import/export procedures and activities is the trump card in this. Britain gets most of its food via the E.U. who can starve Britain into submission, or at least cut off their white wine supply.

I'm over there for the first two weeks in March for a conference - it will be interesting to see things up close.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

"the only two options on the table are May's deal and a no-deal Brexit."

There may be another option, postpone Article 50 until a deal can be made that both the EU and the UK parliament agree to. That would give Corbyn his election, even if it is only by May timing out in 4 years. Oh, and Brexit is dead, because there will be no agreement.

WCVarones
WCVarones

The Deep State always wins.

Parliament will revoke the March 29 Brexit, and the can will be kicked until they can figure out a way to not Brexit.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

Mish your take of Corbyn is excellent -- He wants "none of the above" but is too lazy to think what he does want. Of course the hard Brexit that most right wing republicans want has little to do with how it will work out for the Brits and much more to do with recking the EU.

ML1
ML1

WTO-trade Brexit is the best option for UK.

May's deal is the worst option for UK.

In between those is joining EFTA and asking for an exemption from the free-movement of workers from EU countries to UK.

Fishing rights should NOT be a bargaining chip but May should tell EU and Merkel and Macron that if you do not give UK a much much better deal then French and German taxpayers will be paying that 40 billion.

Macron can expect more problems in France after he tells French people that they have to pay billions more since Macron was incompetent in negotiations and demanded that UK is given only a horrible deal and Merkel might leave early and replaced by new CDU leader AKK after Merkel tells German people that they have to pay tens of billions more since Merkel demanded that UK is given only a horrible deal.

Other option to handle the missing 40 billion that mostly Germany and France will have to pay if UK does not pay it would be fire thousands of EU bureaucrats with high tax-free salaries that took part in planning how to give UK a horrible deal.

People's vote aka 2nd referendum is a ridiculous proposal that would make a mockery of Democracy and destroy both Tories and Labour as parties.

shred1
shred1

Labor does not care about labor.


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY