Modrich

Were All Going To Die

Yes we are all going to die eventually but probably not now.

  1. Angelo Borrelli is the head of the Italian Civil Protection Agency who are collecting data on coronavirus said " a ratio of one certified case out of 10 is credible". That means he believes around 640000 people in Italy are already infected (cases at the time were around 64000). That may sound like really bad news but it isnt. That means from a very elderly population (2nd oldest in the world after Japan) the death rate is just less than 1 per cent, the overwhelming majority being elderly.

2)The new coronavirus may have already infected up to half the popuation in the UK according to modelling by researchers at Oxford University. If results are confirmed they imply that fewer than 1 in a thousand of those infected by COVID 19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment. The vast majority have no symptoms or very mild symptoms. So says Sunetra Gupta professor theoretical epidemiology. She goes on to state that we need large scale antibody testing immediately.

If you have the time and due to how important this issue is, especially the damage being done to the economy then take time to visit Karl Denningers Market Ticker site for some great work on this subject. He has been calling it this way for the best part of a week.

Comments (3)
Modrich
Modrich

Wall Street Journal just done a piece latching on to this. Anyway until we start randomly testing for antibodies which they are doing in China we will never know.

No. 1-2
njbr
njbr

Gosh, you should call Italy and Spain and tell them to relax...

What you don't seem to understand is that MOST (80 to 85%) really have no effect. The remainder get noticeably ill with 3 to 5% requiring hospitalization. It is that 3 to 5% that is the problem--too many people in the hospitals. When the hospitals are overwhelmed, more people die. In a completely broken system that 3 to 5% WILL DIE because of a lack of care. All this has been known for months--and we need to prepare for that percent of critical care people.

In Spain if you have CV and if you are over 65 you a put in a corner and given sedatives to relieve your suffering--that's it...

But hey, send them the message it's all OK...


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