Not sure I agree the US is headed for a recession, but the term "recession" has become a bit of a red herring in any event.
The financial economy (Wall Street trades, San Fransisco does IPOs) is over levered and as a whole is completely lacking in substance. There are parts that do important things for the broader economy, but most of it is nonsense.
Meanwhile, "Main Street" (as opposed to Wall Street) seems to be doing OK -- in spite of Washington DC's efforts to crush it. More and more corruption in Washington (both parties) is causing Americans to realize the federal government cannot (IS NOT ABLE TO) fix most things. And a lot of state governments are no better, quite a few in the northeast, plus IL and CA are in worse shape than the federal government. One has to be brain dead to think a bloated welfare system and endless wars will solve society's problems.
Playing on the bank mantra... The federal government is too big NOT to fail
It doesn't really matter what the Fed does tomorrow. Most loans in the economy don't hinge off Fed Funds. And the money center bank business model is broken, and will remain broken at any FF rate.
Bullying down Fed Funds rate is about buying more time for a failing government. Lower rates won't fix the broader economy anymore than they did in Japan or EU -- both of which are failing even at 0%.
The fed IS completely data dependent :) All the data says big government is collapsing throughout the G7, and big government doesn't like that answer