# Where Will the Stock Market Be a Decade From Now?

Mish

**Where To?**

**My Guess of Hussman's Guess**

**Hussman Replies**

-4.8% annually for 10 years.

Max drawdown -65%.

If I interpret Hussman accurately, I come up with this.

**Future Value at -4.8% for 10 Years**

MoneyChimp has a nice Compound Interest Rate Calculator.

It allows negative interest rates. Most don't despite the huge amount of negative-yielding bonds.

**Hussman on the Fed Model**

**Looking Back**

**My Guess**

I do not have a guess as to where we will be 10 years from now but I do expect something on the order of a 65% drawdown between now and then, with some sort of rebound then in play, perhaps no higher than we are now.

**US Large Caps**

Let's assume the GMO 7-Year Forecast is correct and someone lost 4.4% every year for seven straight years.

That is amazingly tame compared to what some of us think.

Yet, it would crucify pension plans assuming 7% annual gains.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock