YouGov Factors In The Brexit Party Alliance

-edited

The Brexit Party will not field candidates in seats won by the Tories in 2017. A new YouGov Poll calculates the impact.

Here is the latest YouGov Poll.

Most sites do not show the unweighted numbers. My chart does.

YouGov Question

There will be a UK general election on 12 December 2019. The candidates that will stand in your constituency are not yet known for certain. You may face a choice between the following parties and candidates. Given these parties and candidates, how do you intend to vote in the upcoming election?

Headline Voting Intention - Weighted Response

Westminster Voting Intention - prompting for parties and candidates standing in respondent's constituency. [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused]

UK General Election Polls

Tory Party Trend Since September 7

Tory Party Trend Since General Election Announcement

Labour Party Trend Since September 7

Labour Party Trend Since General Election Announcement

Except for YouGov, the Labour trends are much flatter.

Where to From Here?

The polls already reflect much of the tactical voting that will take place.

  • Tory Party: The Tory party gains from the Brexit party are mostly in, but only reflected in one poll. It is reasonable to expect a further 1-3 percentage point bounce in the other polls.
  • Brexit Party: I expected Brexit Party support would collapse to 4% and it did, overnight in the YouGov Poll. Some of what remains will erode away too.
  • Liberal Democrats: Support for Lib Dems in all 9 polls since Parliament dissolved have been in a very tight range of 15-17%. If that holds and I expect it to, then Labour can expect little further gains at their expense.
  • Green Party: As with the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party is nearing base support. There is just not much further to lose. And what losses do happen are just as likely to go to Liberal Democrats as Labour.
  • Labour Party: Discounting BMG, the potential for the Labour party to benefit from the Greens is limited. If the Liberal Democrats are at core support or near core support, Labour has hit the end end of the road in further pickups.

Additional Notes

  1. I do not have BMG in my charts. They came too late to the poll party. I have 8 trends and my charts are already getting a bit messy. 8 is enough.
  2. Survation is the only pollster to survey Northern Ireland. It is a mistake and add to the confusion.

Understanding the Massive Flaws in UK Polls

I discussed the issue with Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales in Understanding the Massive Flaws in UK Polls

Scotland is far and away the most problematic, but regional parties in general pose a huge problem. To understand why, consider the Scottish National Party (SNP).

SNP Discussion

  • SNP is polling 3-4%
  • SNP currently holds 35 of 59 seats in the UK parliament on that 3-4% of the vote.
  • How? 4% of Great Britain is almost 50% of Scotland!

It makes no sense to report SNP in general election polls but they all do. Moreover, some analysts believe the SNP will take every Tory seat in the next election, a pickup of 13 seats to 48, all on that same 4% of the vote.

Biased YouGov? Repeat of 2017 Errors?

Yougov changed its methodology as did all the pollsters. YouGov was spot on for the European Parliament elections.

Besides, the trends have not changed yet and Boris Johnson is not Theresa May.

Don't count on a repeat of 2017 errors.

Electoral Calculus

Labour's Last Hopes

Labour's last hope is these polls are massively wrong and Labour gains very strongly at the expense of the Tory Party following the debates.

Sticking With My 351 Tory Seat Projection

Until I see any evidence of further trend changes, I am sticking with my 351 Tory seat projection as noted in UK Election Math: What are the Odds of a Hung Parliament?

Election in 4 Weeks!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (3)
No. 1-2
Bagger
Bagger

Thanks Mish. I appreciate your work even if CountryBob is yet to be convinced.

jacob_zuma
jacob_zuma

Mish, if the YouGov weighted poll is a reliable proxy for how seats in Parliament will be apportioned, then it shows a hung Parliament, or possibly Corbyn becoming prime minister if he gets the support of the Lib Dems, SNP, & Greens. Yes, Swinson hates Corbyn, but she may come under pressure from her party if it supporting Corbyn meant preventing Johnson's deal.

Johnson fumbled with his half deal. It may be that many pro-Labour workers who supported Brexit will find that Johnson's deal does not deliver it, and so they would rather go with Labour at least for their other policies.