Bernie Will Drop Out Wednesday or a Week From Wednesday

Mish

It's all over for Bernie Sanders. Kiss his campaign goodbye.

Kiss Bernie Goodbye

The only remaining question is "When does he drop out?"

I suspect Bernie will throw in the towel tomorrow night or Wednesday. If not, then give it another 8 days. A look at upcoming primaries and pledged delegates will explain why.

Pledged Delegates

California and Colorado are still counting but even if you give all the remaining Super Tuesday delegates to Sanders he is hopelessly behind.

Also you can put Bloomberg's 61, Buttigieg's 26, and Klobuchar's 7 in Bidens column. Technically those are free delegates, but conventions says they are supposed to vote for another candidate if endorsed. All three endorsed Biden. Warren has not yet endorsed Sanders, and I do not believe she ever will. He will drop out soon enough.

Super Tuesday Projection

My Super Tuesday Projection was Biden 696, Sanders 633, Bloomberg 66, and Warren 70.

That looks reasonably close but add in endorsements and I projected Biden 795 and Sanders 633.

Again, that will be close, and the math looks like this.

Biden = 795 / 1499 = 53.0%

March 10 Democratic Primaries

I expect Biden will win 67% of those delegates. That's another 234 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 795 + 234 = 1029 delegates.

Perhaps Sanders stays in for one more week.

March 17 Democratic Primaries

Give Biden about 67% of those delegates. That's another 387 delegates in his camp which would put him at roughly 1029 + 387 = 1416 delegates.

Assuming Sanders makes it that far, he will then be forced to concede it's totally hopeless.

Honest Loser

Bernie is a socialist, but he is the most honest of the bunch.

He is also the only genuine anti-war candidate, not counting Tulsi Gabbard.

My Expectation

Bernie will drop out on Wednesday March 11 "for the good of the party and the good of the nation" to beat Trump.

If not then, add another week, March 18.

Mike "Mish Shedlock

Comments (73)
Freebees2me
Freebees2me

OK - so it's Trump verses..well, you know the thing...

No. 1-31
Mish
Mish

Editor

I said Tuesday about 16 minutes ago but was scrambling to get this out Monday evening. I finished the post and cleaned up a few missing items like the March 17 primaries and delegate projections.

Helene84
Helene84

So it's 4 more years of Trump then.

TheLege
TheLege

I think Biden is in with a strong shout. The world is falling apart for Trump at just the wrong time.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Bernie is just unlucky. He would have probably won it all in 2016 had the superdelegates not been in Clinton's wallet. This time the Dems were not going to make the same mistake twice and fragmented the vote. Bernie's message is also stale with people overall seeing some light under Trump (until maybe now). The country could do worse then Biden but my only question is why are 3 guys in their mid to late 70s going to survive coronavirus ? The VP needs to be much younger as they probably will become President irrespective of who gets elected.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Flashback March 1 - by Helene84

"Biden will be crushed on Tuesday. He is clearly sundowning and his family corruption has caught up with him. He has no political operation beyond SC, no ground game whatsoever and almost no cash on hand."

Uh.....
Not exactly

Sechel
Sechel

I don't see Bernie doing anything for the good of the party. He's never really been a Democrat or seen himself as such. I think he'll stay in till the DNC decides on the nominee which increasingly looks like Joe Biden. Coronavirus is probably helping Biden. Democrats probably think Biden is better able to lead us on the issue and as long as the virus is in the news Bernie can't really get his message out. The virus is sucking the air out of any competing news

jacob_zuma
jacob_zuma

Sanders' odds in Michigan, Illinois, & Ohio may be higher than what your graphs are showing because of blue collar workers there. He may also do better than projected in Washington. But I agree if he can't do well on March 10 then he might as well drop out.

KidHorn
KidHorn

Bernie has no chance, but I suspect his pride may not allow him to drop out. His fall was going to happen sooner or later. People who don't vote for him will never vote for him. At least in the primaries.

AndrewUK
AndrewUK

Think you are probably right: Bernie is toast. But if the best you can do is Biden then my God. The man is corrupt without a shadow of doubt, and judging by recent events one has to question if he has all his marbles. Don't think he has. Looks as if the best option is another term for Trump.

pohzzer
pohzzer

Tulsi Gabbard is the sanest most honest politician in Washington who actually has the titanium cohones to pull us out of foreign wars. Imagine the response had she been in charge when the coronavirus broke out.

Quatloo
Quatloo

It is a pretty depressing picture for the Presidential election, Biden vs. Trump. Really pathetic in fact.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Another SouthPark election... turd sandwich vs giant douche.

hmk
hmk

What happens when the dems finally realize Biden is senile and they need a new candidate. I am hoping they will pick Bloomberg the most palatable of the candidates.

sangell
sangell

Bernie would be unwise to drop out. I just can't see the Democrats running Joe Biden, a man whose mental acuity is deteriorating in plain sight. One or two more 'lying dog faced pony soldier' cracks or meandering stream of unconsciousness replies to a question and its going to be the end of the road for Biden.

That does not mean Bernie would by default be the alternative but he would have the largest bloc of delegates. Bernie is too old and has his own health issues. The Democrats are going to have to invent a new candidate in Milwaukee and Bernies will either get a major say on who it will be or they could just walk out and run Bernie as a 3rd party candidate.

Herkie
Herkie

Sanders never had any real hope of winning Mish, but then he did not in 2016 either. His goal isn't the Oval Office, his goal is to play spoiler for the democrats who he hates far more than the GOP. In his mind the GOP is the reactionary right wing monstor that needs to be overthrown in his worker's pardise and the only thing standing in his way is the Democratic Party! He sees democrats as the real enemy because without them in the way he could easily end the two party system and forever destroy republicanism. He sees republicans as basically evil and yet they are just being who and what they are, on the other hand democrats who SHOULD be coronating him as premier of the socialist worker's paradise are the ones actually thwarting his efforts.

He raised a lot of money which he can use to go on fighting, even with no chance of winning himself, but, he can and will use that warchest to make sure the democrats do not win either. Not only that but he has the down ballot votes to think about, even if he can't be our first socialist leader he wants his disruptive "progressive" AOC's and Talibs down ballot to win seats because he knows that every seat they take they cost democrats another seat in congress.

What I predict is he will stay in till the convention and even get nastier and play dirtier than ever after today, and he will do as he did in 2016 and dog whistle his thuggish scum to vote for Trump over Biden, or at the very least stay home.

This is (the primary reason) why I maintain that he is the very last person on this planet I would vote for as our president, if his name any any other are on the ballot in November I will be voting for the other! And you know me to be a democrat.

abend237-04
abend237-04

"I am not a member of any organized political party-I am a Democrat." Will Rogers

In 52 years, Democrats will have progressed from electing Nixon to reelecting The Donald.

Sudo
Sudo

So when the big convention rolls around and Biden's family announces that he has been hospitalized and is withdrawing from the race who do you think will rise to the already scripted occasion and become the saviour of the democratic party?

SHOfan
SHOfan

This campaign is a good example of how the parties manipulate the election process. It was questioned why there will still so many candidates debating so late in the race. Also, that Bloomberg was even allowed in so late.
When all these candidates began to drop out they gave their delegate votes away to Biden. So, if you voted for Buttigieg, those votes went to Biden. Same for the rest.
This is likely how we ended up the the unlikely pair, Bush Jr and Gore.
Neither very popular, but there they were.
The primary system is corrupt and we end up with a choice between candidates the public, likely did not even want.
Interesting that this does not become a big issue. Guess the media won't help us there either.

klausmkl
klausmkl

I didn't think Bernie would get it. The last time was his chance and he is the one who actually gets robbed. Bernie was the only one who stood a chance to beat trump. Biden will lose. It's almost like they want trump in there. Biden has dementia. He is already saying stupid things. oh well. I really don't care who wins. I am not voting.The entire process is a kangaroo election.

Sechel
Sechel

Proportionality now works against Sanders where it used to work against Biden

AWC
AWC

Bernie, Bernie, occi slashes dividend, Bernie Bernie, Bernie

aqualech
aqualech

Hard to imagine that addled old hair sniffer as President though.

Brother
Brother

Unbelievable endless news cycle going on. Coronona virus is now being patented (PAF) and being used politically and economically to panic global markets and citizens all over the world. The media isn't listening to official government health recommendations. The Democrats are attacking what a disgrace.

Cocoa
Cocoa

Biden is an dementia-addled geezer. Makes Hillary look cogent. This is the best the Dems have to offer, huh?

tz3
tz3

How much of Milwaukee will burn when the Bernie Bros object to the Nomination dumpster fire? 1968 on steroids!

hhabana
hhabana

The Democrats are fools. They had a chance with Bernie, but are voting for a guy with sloppy memory and verbal skills. Trump is going to slaughter Biden in the debates and he will have another four years as our President. I think the Democrats are so fearful of Bernie that they are willing to sacrifice this election. Bernie screwed up too by not assuring Boomers that they will still receive their social security and medicare with no decreases. Also, Bernie failed to present a logical way to pay for his ideas of healthcare for all. To me, I htink the Democrats are toast for a party. They can't put logic ahead of their thoughts. The Republicans are better than the Democrats, but not that much. They have forgotten about the debt and deficits. Very sad days for America.

Quatloo
Quatloo

Bernie would be crazy to quit tomorrow, no chance of that happening (even though Trump calls him ‘crazy Bernie’, he’s not that crazy). With the next debate a one-on-one affair on Sunday, he will take his best shot at Joe and then see how he does in the primaries on Tuesday.

No way he will quit before the debate this weekend. Others have pointed out that with Joe prone to self-destruction it may make sense to stay in until the convention.

Sechel
Sechel

things could not have gone worse for bernie in missouri and michigan. but there's no talk of him getting out. he has the money and i doubt he's worried about burning britches. i's not like he plans on running in four years or has hopes of higher office after this.

imagine trump's bummed to. he got impeached over trying to avoid the very scenario that's playing out right now. an ansteroid would have to land on biden's head to alter the odds of his winning the nomination.

awc13
awc13

Bernie will drop out on Wednesday March 11 "for the good of the party and the good of the nation" to beat Trump.

bernie is not a democrat, so is cares less about the good of the party. he will leave the party when the election is over

abend237-04
abend237-04

Honesty has it's limits. I never doubted Lenin's honesty; I've always believed he really believed, too. It's Bernie's wilful ignorance and stubbornness in denying the reality of universal collectivism's total failure that pisses me off about him.


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