Bloomberg Qualifies for the Nevada Debate: What Now?
Bloomberg Hits 19% in NPR Poll Qualifying for the Debates
Bloomberg will get an invite to the Democratic debate on February 19 having met his fourth national poll qualifier today. He needed to to 10% in four "approved" polls and today's NPR release qualifies.
The green highlights represent qualifying polls. Bloomberg also got 10% in a Fox news poll on January 22. That was his first qualifier. NPR was the fourth.
The debate is tomorrow. Bloomberg qualified on the last possible date.
On February 11, in 3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate I commented that I expected him to qualify because "Bloomberg has topped 10% in five out of the last six poll even though his running total [of qualifiers] is only three. "
Looking at all the the polls since January 29, Bloomberg has topped 10% in 6 consecutive polls and 8 of 9.
19% is his highest number yet.
Rule Change Has Bernie Fans Hopping Mad
For Bloomberg to qualify, the DNC controversially scrapped the requirement that a candidate must have raised money from a specified number of individual donors. This was a benefit to Bloomberg who is not accepting donations. Bernie Supporters Scream "Rigged System" in response to the change.
South Carolina Feb 25 Debate Qualifiers
Four-Poll Threshold: A candidate will need at least ten percent support in four different polls published from a list of approved pollsters between February 4, 2020 and February 24, 2020, which can not be based on open-ended questions and must cover either the national level or the remaining early state of South Carolina. Only one poll from each approved pollster counts towards meeting the threshold for each region. The approved pollsters are the Associated Press, ABC News/The Washington Post, CBS News/YouGov, CNN, Fox News, Monmouth University, National Public Radio, NBC News/The Wall Street Journal, NBC News/Marist,The New York Times, Quinnipiac University, USA Today/Suffolk, and Winthrop University. For organizations that appear in pairs with other entities, only polls conducted by the listed pairings are permitted. Organizations listed individually can partner with any other entity or field polls independently. The DNC may choose to add an additional South Carolina-specific poll sponsor to this list.
Early State Polling Threshold: Alternatively to the four-poll threshold, a candidate will qualify with at least twelve percent support in any two polls from the same list of organizations and time period in the remaining early state, South Carolina. This threshold does not require that different organizations or regions be used, but also does not include national polls.
Delegate Threshold: A candidate will automatically qualify if he or she gains at least one pledged delegate from any of the three preceding early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada for the Democratic National Convention even if no other requirements are met.
The above from 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Debates
Steyer can make the debate if he gets a delegate in Nevada or if he qualifies in four national polls. Both are unlikely but his better shot seems to be Nevada.
Expect a Madhouse
The Wall Street Journal reports Bloomberg has been preparing for the debate. That indicates he will accept the invite.
I expect a madhouse in the debate tomorrow with the other candidates accusing him of attempting to buy the election and others attacking him for his stop and frisk policy as New York City Mayor.
Bernie is not on a path to get 50% of the delegates. No one is. A contested primary is one of the most likely outcomes.
Stop And Frisk
Trump accused Bloomberg of being a racist over stop and frisk then removed the Tweet. At a minimum, Trump is a hypocrite as he repeatedly praised Bloomberg for the policy.
For discussion, please see Bloomberg Rips Trump and Trump Backs Down.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock