Bloomberg Soars to 15% in Latest Quinnipiac Poll

Mish

A Quinnipiac University poll has Bernie Sanders in the lead, Joe Biden in second place and Michael Bloomberg in third.

The lead image is from CNN politics.

Quinnipiac University reports Bloomberg Rises, Runs Strong Against Trump.

In the wake of the Iowa caucuses and heading into the New Hampshire primary, there is a dramatic shift in the Democratic primary race for president as Senator Bernie Sanders claims frontrunner status for the first time, overtaking former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today.

Sanders gets 25 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden gets 17 percent, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg receives 15 percent, Senator Elizabeth Warren gets 14 percent, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receives 10 percent, and Senator Amy Klobuchar gets 4 percent. .

In a January 28th poll, prior to the Iowa caucuses, Biden had a modest lead with 26 percent of the vote while Sanders got 21 percent, Warren had 15 percent, Bloomberg received 8 percent, Klobuchar got 7 percent, and Buttigieg received 6 percent.

“Biden scrambles to bounce back in frigid New Hampshire after an icy slide to 17 percent, his lowest national number,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Analyst Tim Malloy.

Is the Bloomberg camp prepping the white horse for him to ride to the rescue? Maybe not yet, but without setting foot in Iowa or New Hampshire, he is suddenly a looming shadow over the primary field,” Malloy added.

Candidates vs Trump

  • Bloomberg tops Trump 51 – 42 percent
  • Sanders defeats Trump 51 – 43 percent
  • Biden beats Trump 50 – 43 percent
  • Klobuchar defeats Trump 49 – 43 percent
  • Warren wins narrowly over Trump 48 – 44 percent
  • Buttigieg is also slightly ahead of Trump 47 – 43 percent

Favorability Ratings

President Trump’s favorability rating is underwater, as 42 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 55 percent have an unfavorable view of him. However, it is his best favorability rating since a March 7th, 2017 poll, when his favorability rating was a negative 43 – 53 percent. [I calculate -13]

Like President Trump, the top four Democratic candidates in the primary are viewed more unfavorably than favorably. Warren has the worst net score (favorable minus unfavorable) among all registered voters, with Biden close behind. Biden’s favorability numbers have been declining over the last year since his positive 53 –33 percent favorability rating in a December 19th, 2018 poll.

  • Warren gets a negative 39 – 47 percent favorability rating [-8]
  • Biden gets a negative 43 – 50 percent [-7]
  • Bloomberg gets a negative 34 – 40 percent, with 25 percent who haven’t heard enough about him [-6]
  • Sanders gets a negative 44 – 49 percent [-5]
  • Buttigieg gets a positive 36 – 32 percent, and 31 percent haven’t heard enough about him [+4]
  • Klobuchar gets a positive 32 – 22 percent, with 44 percent who haven’t heard enough about her [+10]

I have maintained all along that Klobuchar would make a strong candidate. The Democrats need a moderate to have the best chance and she fits right in. She as also has the feweet enemies. Not knowing her helps.

Warren is a lightning rod and the Democratic candidate most likely to lose to Trump.

Hung Primary Odds Keep Rising

The better Bloomberg does, the more likely Democrats have no clear winner heading into the national convention.

Biden rates to get clobbered in New Hampshire but then South Carolina will be very favorable to him.

National Polls

According to Real Clear Politics, Morning Consult has Bloomberg at 14% in one national poll. Harris has Bloomberg at 13% in another.

The Quinnipiac poll is not yet posted.

By my count, Bloomberg just needs one more poll (4 total) over 10% to have eligibility for the Nevada debate. Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar have already qualified. Bloomberg would make six.

No Winner Odds 25%

On February 5, I wrote Odds of "No Winner" in the Democratic Primary Top 1 In 4

For now, I will stick with that estimate, but today's implications are a bit higher. The problem now is most polls in key states are too stale.

For example, the latest Texas poll is from January 19. The latest California poll is from January 27.

Given the Iowa Debacle, (See Blatantly Incorrect Iowa Caucus Math Is Now Official) and the staleness of the polls it's even harder than normal to estimate the current situation.

Nearly any setup in which 3 candidates can maintain 15% or more of the vote until the end leads to a negotiated convention. And it does not have to be the same three in each state.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (57)
Latkes
Latkes

Bloomberg would be great. Two billionaires facing off, while the plebs argue which one is better for the people.

No. 1-21
stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

No doubt Bumberg can buy some votes, but can he buy an election?

Jojo
Jojo

You mean one actual billionaire and one underwater guy up to his neck in lawsuits of all varieties?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump can still win even by losing the popular vote. He doesn't actually need as many votes and can focus on some specific districts in the country. The last analysis I saw had Trump at 259 electoral votes if you take away the swing states he won in 2016. He needs only 11 electoral votes based on this and has multiple paths to 270.

Zardoz
Zardoz

It'll be nice to see someone finally pay for their own presidency.

klausmkl
klausmkl

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
Candidate Jan. 7 Jan. 14 Jan. 21 Jan. 29 Feb. 4/Feb. 5
Donald Trump -115 -145 -140 -135 -140 / -150
Bernie Sanders +700 +500 +500 +350 +350 / +425
Michael Bloomberg +1600 +1200 +1200 +1000 +1000 / +750
Joe Biden +400 +550 +450 +550 +600 / +850
Pete Buttigieg +1600 +2200 +2200 +2800 +2000 / +1300
Andrew Yang +2500 +2500 +2300 +2800 +2600 / +2600
Elizabeth Warren +1600 +1800 +1800 +2500 +3000 / +3000
Hillary Clinton +4000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +5000 / +5000
Amy Klobuchar +6000 +6000 +7500 +10000 +10000 / +10000
Mike Pence +8000 +8000 +12500 +12500 +12500 / +12500
Nikki Haley +10000 +10000 +15000 +15000 +15000 / +15000
Tulsi Gabbard +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 / +1

klausmkl
klausmkl

Forget stupid polls/Vegas odds

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The big issue by summer may be if offshoring to China is even a good idea anymore. How will the Democrats be pro-America manufacturing if Trump has been there for years ? This could shape up to be a globalist vs nationalist election again.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

BEIJING/GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday the spread of coronavirus cases among people who have not been to China could be “the spark that becomes a bigger fire” and the human race must not let the epidemic get out of control.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Forget the election talk. The next month or so are going to be about the contagion that is nCoV and the associated impact. Things are getting worse in China from firsthand reports.

shamrock
shamrock

Clearly, Trump will lose the popular vote. He lost by 3 million last time. What if he loses by 8 million but squeaks out a victory anyway? Will the people accept that or just revolt?

Sechel
Sechel

Makes sense. Bloomberg has a record in both business and government. He has accomplishments and he has the money and a network of supporters ready to get the word out. Bloomberg has a huge network of mayors advocating for his run. After he retired from politics he continued to support mayors in other cities and he's seeing dividends from that effort.

If Bloomberg and Klobuchar teamed up the result would be unstoppable

mkestrel
mkestrel

You folks are delusional. The democrats have set their future with Iowa.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

If the people of this country are stooopid enough to elect Bloomberg President, then they deserve what they will have coming.

But I think that is a VERY long shot.

AWC
AWC

There is no one on either party ticket that, if elected, wouldn’t contribute to enhancing the ongoing destruction of this nation.

magoomba
magoomba

A new supervolcano 30 times the size of Yellowstone has just been discovered under southern Utah.

sangell
sangell

Looks like the Democrats are setting up to replay 1968. Eugene McCarthy put the nomination in play when he knocked of LBJ in New Hampshire. Then Bobby Kennedy entered the race but got his head blown off in California. The establishment Dems then tried to ram Hubert Humphrey ( who avoided primaries) down a leftist leaning party's throat and their convention dissolved into a televised riot.

A unpopular Nixon was able to win even with George Wallace running and, save for Jimmy Carter's single term, the GOP held the White House from 1968 to 1992. Mike Bloomberg seems a perfect stand-in for Hubert Humphrey and Bernie Sanders Antifa goons the rioters at the 2020 convention.

Sechel
Sechel

It's going to come down to Bloomberg and Sanders. Biden isn't looking as strong as he should be. Maybe that reverses but the trend isn't auspicious. Has nothing to do with Trump

JonSellers
JonSellers

The totals for rightist democrats crush the totals for leftist (Sanders/Warren). And Sanders supporters won't show up to vote for Bloomberg. Trump takes this easy.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump is clearly focused on Bloomberg now. He's now tweeting about Bloomberg's golf game of all things.

Sechel
Sechel

One of three people will be President a year from now, Bloomberg , Bernie or Trump


Global Politics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY