How Did Klobuchar Dropping Out Impact Super Tuesday?

Mish

With klobuchar dropping out of the race, my delegate estimate changes significantly.


Field Reduced to Four

Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race on Sunday.

Tom Steyer did so on Saturday.

Amy Klobuchar dropped out today and endorsed Biden. This move changes my Super Tuesday Forecast made hours ago.

Question of the Day: Did Klobuchar Make a Deal with Biden?

My answer is yes: She was running for VP all along, and smartly so. See the link for discussion.

Delegate Math

Hours ago I made a Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday

Let's redo the math in light of Klobuchar's endorsement and a couple of new polls. Also note that Klobuchar is traveling with Biden and campaigning for him in Texas.

California

Bernie Sanders' big hope is California.

The CNN poll, if accurate, would net Sanders nearly every delegate in California.

I now see little chance of that happening.

The Emerson poll is new today. I did not have that in my previous forecast. The trend for Biden is now firmly established and Klobuchar's endorsement will help.

I am now looking at a predominantly 3-way split with Bloomberg not getting 15% statewide but getting 15% in some districts. This helps Biden and Warren and hurts Bloomberg.

Bloomberg is fading in the recent polls. He could walk away with nothing in California. If so, Biden could do much better than I project.

My California Call

  • Sanders: 35 - 42% of the delegates - 175 delegates
  • Biden: 26 - 31% of the delegates - 129 delegates
  • Warren: 18 - 21% of the Delegates - 87 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 6% of the delegates - 25 delegates

Texas

Biden and to a lesser extent Bloomberg will pick up delegates from Buttigieg. The key factor once again is whether or not Warren and Bloomberg hit the threshold. I suspect warren will win some delegates but fall short of 15% statewide.

As a result of Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden, I now expect Biden to win the state in a close race and a 4-way split.

My Texas Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 32% of the delegates - 73 delegates
  • Biden: 30 - 34% of the delegates - 78 delegates
  • Warren: 15 - 15% of the Delegates - 34 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 17 - 19% of the delegates - 43 delegates

Virginia

These polls are a bit stale. I expect a big bounce for Biden here. There is one new poll that has Sanders in the lead but it is before Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out. To reflect the unexplained Sanders bounce I will leave my forecast intact.

My Virginia Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 35% of the delegates - 35 delegates
  • Biden: 30 - 39% of the delegates - 39 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 18 - 26% of the delegates - 25 delegates

North Carolina

With a Biden bounce, he should win North Carolina. And with Klobuchar dropping out I will bump up Biden's margin of victory but also bump up sanders as well.

​My North Carolina Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 35% of the delegates - 39 delegates
  • Biden: 33 - 46% of the delegates - 50 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 16 - 19% of the delegates - 21 delegates

Minnesota

Previously I commented "I expect a bit of a Klobuchar Bounce"

Strike that.

I now expect Sanders to carry the state but in a 3-way race not 2-way. Warren and Biden now get delegates. Neither did in my previous forecast.

​My Minnesota Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 46% of the delegates - 35 delegates
  • Biden: 18 - 29% of the delegates - 22 delegates
  • Warren 16 - 25% of the delegates - 18 delegates

Massachusetts

Once again a Buttigieg dropout helps Biden. So does Klobuchar. But how much? I envision a 4-way split and a surprise win for Warren. I previously had this as a tie between Warren and Sanders.

​My Massachusetts Call

  • Sanders: 23 - 36% of the delegates - 33 delegates
  • Warren: 25 - 40% of the delegates - 36 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 11 delegates
  • Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 11 delegates

If Biden and Bloomberg do not top 15% in every district they will not get 15% of the delegates.

Colorado

My Colorado Call

  • Sanders: 27 - 42% of the delegates - 28 delegates
  • Warren: 19 - 34% of the delegates - 23 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates
  • Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates

If Biden and Bloomberg do not top 15% in every district they will not get 15% of the delegates. That is my call, unchanged from earlier today.

Subtotals

Sanders: 175 CA + 73 TX + 35 VA + 39 NC + 35 MN +33 MA + 28 CO = 418

Biden: 129 CA + 78 TX + 39 VA + 50NC +22MN +11 MA + 8 CO = 337

Warren 87 CA + 34 TX +18MN + 36MA + 23 CO = 198

Bloomberg 25 CA + 43 TX + 25 VA + 21 NC +11 MA +8 CO = 133

Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Maine and Vermont are also Super Tuesday states.

I expect Biden to win Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Sanders will win Utah. Maine, and Vermont.

I now estimate Biden another 140 out of those extra states, Sanders another 85, Bloomberg another 32, and Warren another 12.

Super Tuesday Delegate Totals

  • Sanders: was 519 now 503
  • Biden: was 432 now 477
  • Warren: was 146 now 210
  • Bloomberg: was 203 now 155
  • Klobuchar: was 45 now 0

Sanders vs Not Sanders

  • Sanders: was 519 now 503
  • Not Sanders: was 826 now 842

Liberals vs Moderates

  • Sanders + Warren = 713
  • Moderates = 632

State Winners

Sanders: CA, MN, CO, UT, ME, VT (6)

Biden: TX, VA, NC, AL, OK, AK, TN (7)

Warren: MA (1)

If Sanders wins MA and Biden TX, it would be 7 states to each of Biden and Sanders, with Sanders getting a small plurality and no one coming close to a majority.

The biggest shift is to Biden and Warren with Bernie hardly changing. Warren picked up in some newer polls, especially California and I now have her winning Massachusetts and picking up some delegates in Minnesota as well.

It is possible Biden wins the most delegates in addition to the most states.

If anything close to what I project happens, the odds of a contested convention will skyrocket.

One final note: We find out every state but California tomorrow due to huge numbers of mail-in votes that only have to be postmarked by tomorrow.

That fact helps Biden in Super-Tuesday discussion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (10)
Quatloo
Quatloo

The establishment Democratic Party and its donors will do anything and everything possible to prevent Bernie from being their nominee

No. 1-5
Sechel
Sechel

I don't think endorsements work very well. If they did Hillary would have received more of the black vote in 2016. I do think that voters who would have gone with Klobuchar will pick the candidate closest to her. That's Biden and Bloomberg. It's anyone's guess who gets the larger cut. It may be Biden, I just don't know.

awc13
awc13

do polls account for early voting in CA? i heard that as many as 10% of the voters may have already cast ballots by now and possibly for a candidate that has now dropped out of the race

3 Replies

Mish
Mish

Editor

Unsure but Likely

I heard as many as 20% voted early.

California counting might take a week or longer.

Florida is March 17. Georgia is March 24
Sentiment for those states might set before CA is announced

Greggg
Greggg

I read that around 1:00 PM today... Tried to find it now and I can't.

Greggg
Greggg

I went looking for that article tonight... couldn't fund it but I did run into this in Michigan: "Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg will no longer host a rally Tuesday night in Macomb County after dropping out of the Democratic presidential primary on Sunday.

Buttigieg, billionaire Tom Steyer and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar exited the race after disappointing finishes in the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

So what if you already voted for one of them? Or other candidates who have dropped out ahead of the March 10 Michigan primary?

Fear not. More than 427,000 Michiganders have cast their ballot in the presidential primary due to no-reason absentee voting. To change absentee votes, send written, signed request to your local clerk for them to “spoil” your ballot and send you a new one in the mail. The request must arrive before 2 p.m. on March 7. If you want to vote at the polls instead, say so in your letter to the clerk".

Mish
Mish

Editor

Super Tuesday is not a matter of "endorsements" It is a matter of vote splitting.

Klobuchar and Buttigieg supporters are unlikely to vote for Bernie or Warren.

Then looking ahead, Biden will pick up moderates and some Republicans sick of Trump if he picks Klobuchar as his VP which is precisely what I predicted long, long ago.

Mish

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

IMHO, whoever "wins" the Presidency in November is going to inherit such a nightmarish series of disastrous, inevitable consequences that they will wish they hadn't.

Herbert Hoover will look like a savior by comparison.


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