I Just Made the Max Predictit Bet on Bloomberg

Mish

I just made a Predictit Bet on Michael Bloomberg becoming the next president. This post covers the bet and the process.

Predictit Bet on Bloomberg

Previously I made a bet on Predictit for Joe Biden to become President.

For Biden, I only had to pay $0.07 to collect $1.00 and I liked those odds and still do. But you can now buy Biden for $0.06.

Today I made another bet (this one on Michael Bloomberg) at a much higher price $0.23 to collect $1.00. This will be my last US presidential election bet.

I bet the max on both candidates $850. About $750 of the Bloomberg bet has filled so far. Fills have been trickling in for over an hour.

$850 is not serious money but I am following the rules.

Predictit Operations

I don't like the way Predictit is setup. The fills are coming in as few as 1 share at a time. My biggest block was 1222 shares.

They have no online chat. There is no way to cancel an unfilled order and there is no way to up the bid to get filled. I posted a question and they will get back within 24 hours. Not very timely.

With the fill I have so far, if either wins, I make a substantial profit percentage-wise. If neither wins I have a total loss.

This post is on the bet and the Predictit process. When they reply to my questions I will likely post an addendum update with their response.

Rationale

I believe Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination are way underestimated. I also believe he would beat Trump if he gets the nomination.

I will explain my rationale shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (39)
Ted R
Ted R

And Bloomberg runs as a Democrat or Independent?

No. 1-21
Mish
Mish

Editor

Democrat - Trump wins if Bloomberg runs as an independent.
Wait for my analysis
You may not agree with it, but you will understand it.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Yup, Bloomberg is gonna be formidable. And an exciting battle: the establishment globalists versus the economic nationalists, the 'system' versus the people. And if money can buy an election that way, there will probably never be another real one until the Republic is officially replaced by some sort of technocracy modeled on China's One Party Republic model.

3 Replies

Herkie
Herkie

Maybe one of you should ask a DEMOCRAT. Bloomberg has about as much chance of being nominated as Sheldon Adelson. And hey, they did go to school together right? Seriously though, he is the oldest of all of them, even Sanders. I would not touch him with YOUR ballot.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

We'll see. Both Democrat and GOP are PINO (Parties in Name Only). If Bloomberg ends up on top, he'll do much better than Hillary did and she came within 120,000 votes of winning the Electoral College. (Trump's 'landslide win' was much tighter than the 306 score made it look.)

The point being, most people will go along with whoever is at the top of the ticket. And the second point being: it's mainly all theater anyway. I don't trust a single aspect of US elections including but not limited only to:
media coverage
polls
vote counts
Party platforms
Presidency or Presidents
Any of the agencies (DOJ, CIA, FBI, DHS, FED, etc. ad infinitum).

Elections are theater.
Presidents are puppets.
Voters are saps.

Herkie
Herkie

I agree with the first paragraph, but will point out that PINO is more of a GOP liability than democrat, just because it has sold it's conservative soul to Donald Trump (and by extension V. Putin) in order to leverage their minority party status into power. Meanwhile the democrats still have a thriving debate over the direction of the party as demonstrated by the wildly differering candidates. Elderly, Jewish, socialist, gay, females, blacks, even an Asian, all ran, there were mainstream, far fringe, and republicans in democrats clothing.

And yes, 2016 was excruciatingly close, a fact lost on the GOP which has fooled itself into thinking that a win is a win no matter what, they went to govern is a style that simply does not recognize that they are indeed the minority party, and that they have allowed Trump to commit crimes both moral and legal while looking the other way and even putting their stamp of approval on the blight more than once means that they simply will have pretty much no chance in November. If nothing else demographics will be an insurrmountable WALL! Their only hope of a win this time is either to blatantly cheat or hope for a critically divided left, and that would only happen if Sanders is nominated.

As far as trust in the election I hear you, and am sad about it as well, who would have thought the day would arrive in America where the voters have little or no confidence in our vote? It has to have deep and dark consequences for our future.

But, as far as going along with the top of the ticket, that might be true in the GOP because the rank and file do understand that there are more liberal voters than conservative, they unlike the media and party apparatchiks have not glossed over the fact that Hillary got well more than 3 million more votes than Trump, and they know though they will not admit this EVER that had the shoe been on the other foot and Hillary won the EC in spite of a clear popular vote victory for Trump that it would be them howling rather than trying to rationalize that. Their only shot at power is strict adherance to obedience and unity. A lesson NOT lost on democrats, which is why I just cannot understand the party allowing Sanders to run as a democrat YET AGAIN! He is a spoiler, unelectable all he can do is cost us as he did in 2016. Had he never been a factor we would not be having this conversation.

shamrock
shamrock

It's interesting you could buy Bernie, Buttie, Bloombergy, Biden, and Klobutcher for a total of .62c to win $1. Or you could buy "no trump" for about .45c to win $1.

AWC
AWC

My gawd,,,look at that long shot on the hildebeast! And with a likely brokered convention, she is likely being fitted for a wonder woman suit as we speak. Or, at least she makes mini mike look less short on a vp ticket?

elawrence7
elawrence7

You can also sell your position (or part of it) before the election.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Bloomberg could possibly beat Trump in New York City - if this were a local election there.

Bloomberg has never even held a state-wide office. Never ran for Governor or Senate - probably because he knew his support outside of New York City (very large Jewish voting bloc there) would be negligible.

I will not argue that he is not the best candidate in the current (weak) field of Democrats, but on a national level - running against an incumbent President, no less - he will prove to be nothing more than another McGovern or Mondale.

snafuman
snafuman

Nobody like a traitor.
Even when he is on your side.

Quatloo
Quatloo

Because the only thing better than getting to vote for an old New York billionaire for President is getting a choice of old New York billionaires for President

TexasTim65
TexasTim65

No way Mini-Mike can beat trump.

He's 5'7. Hasn't been a president under 6 feet in decades (since before TV), maybe not since before 1900. Optics matter way more than Mish thinks they do.

Plus, why would America vote for an even older white Billionaire? Looking forward to seeing his rationale but if it involves just throwing money at things then it's not much of a rationale.

soundopinion
soundopinion

I agree with Mish on this one. You may lose, but of what's available, I would do the same.

I don't bet on these things, because I never looked into it and it is such small dosh, however just prior to the Iowa Caucus, I was guided by some newstory to Predictit and thought, if I was putting money on any of these odds the one that stands out is Bloomberg.

I thought it was on Democrat nomination though, not on Presidency.
I don't remember what the price was pre-Iowa.

truthseeker
truthseeker

Even before today’s article in the WSJ I checked out Amy Klobuchar’s position on all the issues, and was impressed by the fact that she is even more than just a moderate IMO. For example she does not support the total annihilation of the oil and gas industry as do most Democrats.I would like to see her at the top of the Democratic ticket, yet a Bloomberg-Klobuchar ticket would be tough for Trump to beat.

oldman45
oldman45

How about an adult who isn't influenced by money and power? Tulsi Gabbard

Ebowalker
Ebowalker

No political difference between trump and bloomberg or biden.

Wu Tang Financial
Wu Tang Financial

Sorry that Predictit is taking so long to fill your order. I suggest just flushing your money down the toilet - much faster.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

If you want to bet some more Mish, you know how to contact me. I'll take the other side of that bet and I will not ask you for odds.

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

Bloomberg will be the darling of the media, only because the ad sales department will kiss his ass to keep the spend up. He's buying every ad block on every news program in Colorado. This is forcing other candidates to step up and blow through their wad into Super Tuesday. But even though I'd be long CMCSA, T CBS.A and FOX into the election this is probably the swan song for big media conglomerates as their influence is likely to wane as their viewers die.

Wmjack50
Wmjack50

Yes I believe the American people have learned that Democrats in DC 80% of the bureaucracy are crooked thieves (the down fall of Biden is an example). This information was learned via other media (twitter) as an example. Thus TRUMP will be reelected despite the Pravda regular media.

Herkie
Herkie

“I'm shocked. Shocked to find there's gambling going on here.”

I have no account there but if I did I like Mayor Pete at $0.06.

Jojo
Jojo

I bet my next door neighbor $100 at 2 to 1 for me that Trump loses to the Dem candidate.

Denzilla
Denzilla

Say goodbye to $850...


Global Politics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY