Nate Silver on the Iowa Shit Show

Mish

We have learned a half dozen things from the Iowa Caucus. Let's go over them point by point.

Who Won?

Sorry, that's not one of the things we learned.

I have no idea and apparently neither do those whose mission it is to count the votes. This is despite the fact that we should have known hours ago.

The Iowa Caucus tallies are in a total State of Confusion.

  • Richard Harpootlian, a former South Carolina Democratic chairman who volunteered for former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign in a suburban Des Moines precinct, called the caucuses “the most convoluted, distorting process I’ve ever been involved with.” “Our process ended almost an hour and a half ago. We all entered stuff on an app. So where’s the results? They’re just dragging it out,” Mr. Harpootlian said.
  • Some precinct chairs struggled to transmit caucus results, according to people familiar with the situation, both via a mobile app and by a backup telephone system.
  • There’s been some issues with the app,” said Kelcey Brackett, the chairman of the Muscatine County Democratic Party. “It’s working for some folks, not for others.”
  • “We weren’t set up for everyone to have to use the phone, it sounds like,” said Adin Mann. “I’m at home trying to get the paperwork organized all the way they want it. It’s scattered all over the room here."

You are at home? With the paperwork? Counting votes?

Nate Silver on Iowa

Key Lessons

  1. It's damn hard to calculate 15% of a number. That's the threshold for determining if a candidate won any delegates.
  2. It's so hard to calculate 15% that the Democrats needed to develop an app to do the calculation.
  3. The app was too hard to use. And bear in mind, one does have to punch in numbers correctly.
  4. It's hard to punch in the numbers correctly when the results are scattered all over the room.
  5. Of course there is another key issue. People have to know how to use a phone.
  6. Using a phone requires a mobile app and a backup telephone system. Now that might sound easy, but I can tell you from the results, that it isn't.

And what are the results?

I'm sorry I cannot tell you.

We need an app.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (59)
Dr. Future
Dr. Future

As someone who stayed up to watch the results, I want to thank the Florida Elections Bureau for running this year's Iowa caucus. This year supposedly was the first to have redundancies of the popular vote of both stages, to compare to each precinct's assignment of precinct delegates (why they have to assign them down at that level and then report them, opposed to just reporting raw data, I do not know). They subsequently found "inconsistencies" between the vote totals and the precinct delegate assignments per candidate. This leads me to wonder about earlier caucuses, in which this popular vote data was not reported, if the results from them was similarly suspect, and just now is exposed publicly with the popular vote total data reported to expose such problems.

No. 1-36
Latkes
Latkes

Elections in the US are a whole year of expensive, pointless circus.

Jojo
Jojo

Those Iowan's are really stupid! Everyone involved in developing and testing that app should be fired immediately. And the company that developed it should be given full publicity to "award" the quality of their work.

Russell J
Russell J

Some things should stay old school.
No one needs an app for this.
Keep it simple.

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“There’s been some issues with the app,” said Kelcey Brackett, the chairman of the Muscatine County Democratic Party. “It’s working for some folks, not for others.”

Replace “app” with the word “government”. Now read it again.

Matson
Matson

China builds rudementry hospital in 10 days, while DNC has four years to develop an app in leiu of simple hand crafted ballets, and they screwed it up..... And this is so they can find a leader for the rest of the country to be unshrined as the most powerful person on the planet🤔🤔

Sechel
Sechel

Seems like Republicans got it right. They're just not having primaries

Sechel
Sechel

Personally I like the idea of a caucus over direct selecting of a primary candidate. what I think is ridiculous is the idea that non-party members get to vote. we have some Trump people in coming in to vote for Bernie just because that's the candiate they want Trump to run against. Not sure how many are doing this but its absurd

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Not sure what happen but we never get election results in an accurate or timely manner anymore anyway. The margin for error is also lower when you have more candidates to choose from. The caucus seems a slow and strange way to vote. What happen to everyone getting their own vote.

Blurtman
Blurtman

Hillary in a landslide.

Jacksondog1
Jacksondog1

It must have been the Russians, right?

George Phillies
George Phillies

If California were close, we would be seeing the same delay in the general election, but much longer. The actual California vote count took a considerable number of days to generate, thanks to the 'vote anywhere' process. You can perhaps look up how long it took to resolve some Congressional elections there. The Maine transferrable vote scheme automatically takes a long time, unless the race is not close. Look up 2018. However, the election for President in CA was not close, so it did not matter

Sechel
Sechel

Social media is full of people cracking jokes. It's not funny. This is about the integrity of our election process.

KidHorn
KidHorn

Citizens should not be allowed to determine who the president is. It should be decided by a handful of democratic congressmen and women.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

This is "Idiocracy" - on bath salts.

thimk
thimk

"Russian Malware" ? . This is just the tip of the iceberg. I see election recounts ad nauseam.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

How to change the narrative 101.

Step 1 Create a problem
Step 2 Showcase the proper people
Step 3 Release real date with caveat it could be wrong

Seems about right.

mkestrel
mkestrel

The application "failure" is not a bug but a feature. The democrat "powers that be" did not like Bernie pulling ahead so they created this application failure narrative.

Zardoz
Zardoz

trump has been a godsend to the democrats, blotting out their clumsy, manipulative, greedy antics with his veritable neutron star of stupidity and selfishness. Yet here they manage to shine through it anyway.

Our democracy is utterly fooked. It's all over but the screaming.

I have to wonder if any of this is real, or just a rassling show with pre determined winners and scripted dis interviews. Its just all too damn stupid to have arisen naturally. The mind recoils.

numike
numike

“One idiot is one idiot. Two idiots are two idiots. Ten thousand idiots are a political party.”
― Franz Kafka

leicestersq
leicestersq

The theory appears to be that Bernie won and they had to find a way to pull the result. That sounds plausible. The 'technical issues' explanation of the NY Times makes no sense to me, those problems would be fixed in a jiffy.

Perhaps Tulsi Gabbard did really well as well. None of the ones that they have permitted to win probably came anywhere close.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Today's lesson in "Bolshevik Vote Counting 101".

davebarnes
davebarnes

They are waiting for their payments from Bloomberg.
Surprise! Mike wins Iowa.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.”
― Joseph Stalin

truthseeker
truthseeker

Is it possible that stocks are up because some think that Bloomberg may be put in the next debate and that he would probably win the Democratic nomination, and since he’s not a socialist, he would have the best chance to win the election?

awc13
awc13

hey, i have a great idea, lets put government in charge of all of our healthcare!

abend237-04
abend237-04

Sechel is right; We shouldn't be laughing...but I am. This is the funniest thing since the pigs ate an armed burglar at the back door.

Having spent far more than my fair share of times picking up the pieces from software launches cum goat rodeos, I feel imminently qualified to speculate as to the possible cause of this one:

In the eleventh hour, because of limited test time and high failure rates, they switched to a stable, proven AGW climate modeling super computer for data gathering and prediction, assuming any results would be at least as accurate and reliable as all IPCC reports to date; They were right.

Latkes
Latkes

That shitty software was developed by a company called Shadow. One of the investors - Pete Buttigieg - haha, what a corrupt shithole :)

From their website: "Shadow is a technology company dedicated to building power within the progressive movement." - sounds about right. Things not working are a very progressive value.

AWC
AWC

Maybe Mr. Mann should have been counting votes down at the cemetery, instead of at home?

AWC
AWC

.....or, put another way, ‘It’s not he who casts the vote, it’s he who counts the votes that matters.’

SMF
SMF

It hasn't been the first time that I've seen a 'malfunction' when the results were not to their liking.

William Janes
William Janes

The CCP built a building in ten days, a place for patients to be bedded down. A hospital's infrastructure is far more complex than the building. If the CCP had invested in health care in the manner that Xi Jinping had said would be done rather than more useless rail projects then Wuhan residents would not be dying at home. Listen to NPR this morning, daughter is taking care of her dying family at home. No room in Wuhan hospitals. Do not be fooled by the façade of totalitarian efficiencies.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

This gets more "Hillar-ious" by the hour.

dagnyg
dagnyg

It's the Russian hacker and spies! It's the Chinese virus!! It's Donald Trump!!!
Or much more likely the Clinton machine ... going for a brokered convention.

wxman
wxman

Just biding my time until Trump starts tweeting about "shithole" states lol


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