Odds of No Democratic Primary Winner Now Match Bernie's Chances

Mish

Odds of of a contested Democratic convention are high and rising.

Early this morning I speculated Bernie Edged Buttigieg But Klobuchar is the Real Winner.

Key Takeaways from This Morning

  1. I see one clear winner and one runner-up winner. Neither is Bernie Sanders.
  2. Senator Elizabeth Warren is crippled.
  3. Warren may be crippled, but she is out for Bernie.
  4. The New Hampshire Primary increases the odds of a contested convention.
  5. A lot can happen, but the odds of no winner are now about 30% in my estimation. That is up from 25% in my previous forecast.

This afternoon, Nate Silver at 538 came out with its assessment Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

  • Bernie Sanders: 36%
  • No One: 36%
  • Biden: 17%
  • Buttigieg: 5%
  • Bloomberg 4%
  • Warren 3%

Bernie's odds of winning outright dropped from 48% to 36%.

Plurality Odds

Bernie's odds of having more delegates than any other candidate are just over 50%, but even if so, he needs to be within striking distance or the superdelegates might act to stop his candidacy.

Once again, Nearly any setup in which 3 candidates can maintain 15% or more of the vote until the end leads to a negotiated convention. And it does not have to be the same three in each state.

New Hampshire increased those odds significantly.

3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate

Yesterday I commented 3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate

Bloomberg needs to top 10% in one more national poll to be on the state for the next debate (Only certain pollsters qualify. Click on the link for detail).

I think it's important to be on the stage but a good friend of mine disagrees. He commented "no one wins these debates".

No One Wins These Debates

Judging from the huge leap in "No One" perhaps he is right in more ways than one.

"No One" is now tied with Bernie for the lead.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (16)
Herkie
Herkie

Bernie Sanders getting the nomination would be terrible news. That would mean that either he or the Orange Fat Ass will be elected. The USA will not survive another four years of Trump. And it would not survive the first four years of Sanders.

I seriously REALLY doubt that Sanders could even beat Trump if he were the nominee, his base is about 25% of "democrats." A sold 70% of REAL democrats have an unforable opinion of him. And there are about 65 million people who voted for HRC that would love nothing better than the opportunity to do Sanders and his borg just what they did to her last time, either stay home or vote for Trump.

So many people on the left are saying I plan to vote for the democratic nominee no matter who that is, and so do I, but here is the thing, Sanders is not a democrat so I am relieved of the obligation to vote for a democratic nominee if indeed the party does not nominate a democrat. By the way the same goes for Gabbard though it is a huge joke to think anyone outside of her immediate familiy will vote for her.

No. 1-8
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

FYI: The reason this can happen more easily in the Democratic primary is that the delegates are proportional. The Republican primary is winner take all. This is why there have been multiple floor fights during the Democratic National Convention regarding the delegate count. The superdelegates decide and they should not choose Bernie because simply put, he isn't a Democrat. The Democrats were fools for even letting Bernie run in the Democratic primary. Now they will lose to Trump in a landslide if Bernie is the nominee. The Democrats have multiple problems already and are compounding their own problems without Trump.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

The NH primary clearly shows Senator Warren needs to drop out of the race to avoid losing political capital for her Senate re-election.

Yancey_Ward
Yancey_Ward

It all depends on non-Sander candidate's voter's 2nd choices. I have to believe Sanders is at least the 2nd choice for some Biden, Warren, Buttuvwxyz, and Klobuchar supporters, and as the field narrows, and it will narrow, Sanders shouldn't be stuck at 25%, but we don't know how often he is the alternative. If that really is his ceiling, then he isn't going to be the candidate.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Whoever wins, they'll get the vote of all the people that want sticky fingers trump out of the whitehouse before he hocks the silverware.

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

The Coming Republican Civil War

This is all great news for Republicans and Trump (in particular), but the Republican's turn 'in the barrel' will come soon enough when Trump leaves office and a civil war commences within the Republican party.

lesbaer45
lesbaer45

No Klobuchar odds in that after Iowa/NH results?

klausmkl
klausmkl

So if its no one, which I can see too, the super delegates would come into play. They changed the rules on them lowering their number but a certain amount still exists. Then they would give they edge to the winner. Bernie is out. They would of picked him last time if they wanted him. The old man is on a snipe hunt.


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