Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye

Mish

A slew of new polls released this morning suggests the campaign of Bernie Sanders just came crashing down.

I expected a big bounce for Joe Biden after his massive South Carolina win. In the absence of fresh polls I made Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday.

Two hours later Amy Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden. I expected both of those but not until after Super Tuesday (today - voting is underway).

With that unexpected event I addressed the question How Did Klobuchar Dropping Out Impact Super Tuesday?

In that post I raised expectations for Biden but it was a guess.

I projected Biden to win 7 states, Standers 6, and warren 1. I gave Sanders a plurality of delegates but commented "It is possible Biden wins the most delegates in addition to the most states. "

My delegate count was 503 for Sanders, 477 for Biden, 210 for Warren, and 155 for Bloomberg.

New Polls

It's hard making predictions without polls, but I took a stab at Bernie winning Texas anyway.

Today we have a flurry of polls so I am revising again.

My California Call (Unchanged)

  • Sanders: 35 - 42% of the delegates - 175 delegates
  • Biden: 26 - 31% of the delegates - 129 delegates
  • Warren: 18 - 21% of the Delegates - 87 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 6% of the delegates - 25 delegates

My Texas Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 33% of the delegates - 75 delegates +2
  • Biden: 30 - 38% of the delegates - 87 delegates +9
  • Warren: 15 - 10% of the Delegates - 23 delegates -11
  • Bloomberg: 17 - 19% of the delegates - 43 delegates +0

My Virginia Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 29% of the delegates - 29 delegates -6
  • Biden: 30 - 55% of the delegates - 55 delegates +16
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 8% of the delegates - 7 delegates -18
  • Warren 13 - 8% of the delegates - 8 delegates +8

Previously I noted stale VA polls. This is a huge change.

My North Carolina Call

  • Sanders: 22 - 25% of the delegates - 28 delegates -11
  • Biden: 40 - 65% of the delegates - 71 delegates +21
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 10% of the delegates - 11 delegates -10

Previously I noted stale NC polls. This is another huge change.

My Minnesota Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 40% of the delegates - 30 delegates -5
  • Biden: 22 - 34% of the delegates - 26 delegates +4
  • Warren 16 - 16% of the delegates - 11 delegates -7
  • Bloomberg 12 - 10% of the delegates - 8 delegates +8

My Massachusetts Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 32% of the delegates - 29 delegates -4
  • Warren: 27 - 36% of the delegates - 33 delegates -3
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 17% of the delegates - 15 delegates +4
  • Biden: 16 - 15% of the delegates - 14 delegates +3

My Colorado Call (unchanged)

  • Sanders: 27 - 42% of the delegates - 28 delegates
  • Warren: 19 - 34% of the delegates - 23 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates
  • Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates

Subtotals

  • Sanders: 175 CA + 75 TX + 29 VA + 28 NC + 30 MN +29 MA + 28 CO = 394 was 418
  • Biden: 129 CA + 87 TX + 55 VA + 71NC +26MN +14 MA + 8 CO = 390 was 337
  • Warren 87 CA + 23 TX +8 VA +11MN + 33MA + 23 CO = 185 was 198
  • Bloomberg 25 CA + 43 TX + 7 VA + MN 8 + 11 NC +15 MA +8 CO = 119 was 131

Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Maine and Vermont are also Super Tuesday states.

I expect Biden to win Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Sanders will win Utah. Maine, and Vermont.

I expect Biden will win another 140 out of those extra states, Sanders another 85, Bloomberg another 30, and Warren another 12.

Super Tuesday Delegate Totals

  • Sanders: was 519 then 503 now 479
  • Biden: was 432 then 477 now 530
  • Warren: was 146 then 210 mow 197
  • Bloomberg: was 203 then 155 now 149
  • Klobuchar: was 45 now 0

Sanders vs Not Sanders

  • Sanders: was 519 then 503 now 479
  • Not Sanders: was 826 then 842 now 876

Liberals vs Moderates

  • Sanders + Warren = 676
  • Moderates = 679

State Winners

Sanders: CA, MN, CO, UT, ME, VT (6)

Biden: TX, VA, NC, AL, OK, AK, TN (7)

Warren: MA (1)

I now expect a small plurality for Biden with some of his best states coming up, notably Florida and Georgia.

Bernie Has Peaked!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (17)
perpetually_confused
perpetually_confused

Maybe this should be revisited tomorrow morning when the polls have closed and there are actual numbers to analyze. Those same polls also predicted Hillary Clinton would do great aaaannnnndddd… flopped.

6 Replies

Mish
Mish

Editor

What good is a prediction when everyone already knows the answer?

shamrock
shamrock

The final polls predicted she would win by 3% (with 5% undecided). She won by 2%. Seems pretty good to me.

ajc1970
ajc1970

Mish, I think what he's saying is that predictions about the past are typically more accurate.

Mish
Mish

Editor

That they are and no matter how well or poorly I do I will revisit.
Most likely by 10:00PM

But we will nok know California for at least a week!

Jojo
Jojo

Predictions are like assholes. Everyone has one.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Some people clearly have more than one.

No. 1-9
abend237-04
abend237-04

I think that's a good read. All Joe needs now is an eight month case of severe laryngitis, and a matching one for The Donald.
A resounding endorsement by Obama, predicting Joe's victory in all 57 states, could clinch the nomination.

Axiom7
Axiom7

Betfair.co.uk has Biden at 0.8 to 1 odds favorite vs Bernie as a 2-to-1 underdog. Biden was 6 to 1 last week (kicks self).

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

My co-workers firmly believe the DNC does not want Bernie to win. The political calculus is the DNC made deals with Klobuchar and Buttigieg to drop out because they would pull votes away from Biden; and made no deal with Warren because she would pull votes from Bernie. The theory with Bloomberg is the DNC is using him for his money influence and to give the DNC nomination the appearance of legitimacy.

Sechel
Sechel

You don't poll, what are your predictions based on?

karagiozis
karagiozis

Hey am I mistaken or do you have to get 15% of the vote in a state to get ANY delegates?
(The Democratic Party uses a proportional representation to determine how many delegates each candidate is awarded in each state. For example, a candidate who wins 40% of a state's vote in the primary election will win 40% of that state's delegates. However, a candidate must win at least 15% of the primary vote in order to receive any delegates.)

Jojo
Jojo

Sanders is being cheated. The establishment cheated him out of the 2016 nomination and look what happened. Now they are going to try it again in 2020. So look for 4 more years of Trump because young people are not going to vote for Biden!

RonJ
RonJ

Quid Pro Quo.

That is what Trump was impeached over. Pelosi said no one is above the law.

Unless you are a democrat. Then you nominate Quid Pro Quo.

What a fraud.

RonJ
RonJ

"Two hours later Amy Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden."

How can she do that if she voted to impeach Trump? What happened to no one is above the law?


Global Politics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY