Super Tuesday Lesson: People Don't Want a Socialist

Mish

The key Super Tuesday takeaway, but one that many will miss, is the US is not ready for a socialist president.

Peak Bernie

Super Tuesday was a disaster for Bernie Sanders and mainstream media is shocked.

I am not shocked. It was my call.

Before polls closed and before any exit poll was made, I wrote Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye

Momentum

That is the kind of call that can easily make one look like a fool. But I made it because I am a huge believer in momentum and Joe Biden had it.

The endorsement of Joe Biden by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar sealed the deal.

I expected Pete would drop out after South Carolina and he did. I also expected Amy to drop out and endorse Biden, but not until after Super Tuesday.

With that unexpected event (timewise, not eventwise) I addressed the question How Did Klobuchar Dropping Out Impact Super Tuesday?

Then when last minute polls came in I upped my forecast to an outright win for Biden.

Final Super Tuesday Projection

I rather doubt even the Biden camp had him winning outright.

I have not seen the delegate counts this morning but it's clear that I way over-estimated Warren and Bloomberg.

Did Klobuchar Make a Deal with Biden?

Dropping out ahead of Super Tuesday was a brilliant move on the part of Klobuchar. That propelled Biden in Minnesota and Massachusetts as well.

Two days ago I asked and answered Klobuchar Drops Out: Did She Make a Deal with Biden?

A few hours ago I penned Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday. But this has the potential to dramatically affect Super Tuesday tomorrow.

For starters, I am flipping my Texas forecast from Sanders to Biden. I will work out new totals shortly.

To answer my question: Did she cut a deal for VP with Biden? I say yes.

You could have bought Biden for pennies in Minnesota and Massachusetts turning $800 into $20,000 or so.

No I, did not do it, but I did buy Biden at $0.08 and Bloomberg at $0.23. The latter I can kiss goodbye.

Expect Howls

I expect "We Waz Robbed" howls from the Bernie crowd today.

But this was not a party conspiracy that did Bernie in. Rather, this country is just not ready for a socialist.

Key Bernie Mistake

Bernie made a key mistake. He appealed to the base.

That move gets you rousing support an raucous crowds. But beneath the surface, support is shallow.

I was surprised to see Nate Silver blow this so badly.

"Appealing to the base is ridiculous. Where is the base going? You need to appeal to the independents and the moderates. That is why Trump won in 2016 and one of the reasons he will lose in 2020."

Yey, Bernie drew huge enthusiastic cheering crowds. But he had no appeal to the swing voters and moderates.

Analyst Mistake

I read time and time again about the youth vote. Sanders himself promotes the idea. But that is not where the election will be won or lost.

For starters, millennials are four years older now. Many of them also learned a lesson from staying on the sidelines in 2016.

Even if some Sanders supporters stay away, it's important to understand the math.

Election Math

  1. Every Bernie lover who gets disgusted and does not vote costs the Democrat 1 vote.
  2. Every person who cannot stand voting for a socialist and stays away also costs the Democrats 1 vote.
  3. Every moderate or independent who votes for Trump instead of Sanders costs the Democrats 2 votes.

Understanding the Base

I expect points 1 and 2 net worse for the Democrats but call it roughly equal. Nominating Sanders would be a huge mistake because of point 3.

People figured that out even if mainstream media and the Sanders "appeal to the base" strategists couldn't.

By the way, "base" in this case means a group of radical socialists and Marxists. Label Bernie a radical socialist and Warren a Marxist.

In case you forgot, the same radical silliness is why Jeremy Corbyn lost to Boris Johnson in a UK Prime Minister landslide (called early in this corner when analysts thought it would be close).

It was a huge "unexpected" blowout to the most commentators. Same thing happened last night when multiple CNN analysts proclaimed "Texas was the surprise of the night."

Apparently it was, but not to me.

Final Takeaway

Here's one final Super Tuesday takeaway: Billionaires cannot buy elections.

That's a good thing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (38)
tokidoki
tokidoki

Give it a couple more weeks till the Coronavirus spreads in the US, and it's USSA at the end of the year.

No. 1-23
Jojo
Jojo

Not totally unexpected results here. I did expect the establishment, wall street and politician owners everywhere to circle the wagons around Biden but I didn't think that the voters would be so stupid as to give him the margins of victory that he achieved.

It's going to be same old, same old Joe challenging Trump. It didn't work with Clinton and I don't believe it will work with Biden. Welcome to 4 more years of Trump.

Jojo
Jojo

Let’s Get to Know Our New Democratic Frontrunner, In His Own Words
Take it away, Joe.
By Ashley Feinberg
March 04, 2020

After what can only be described as a remarkable night for the 77-year-old Joe Biden, the once 29-candidate-strong Democratic field is now effectively a two-man race between the former vice president and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Though Sanders had managed to come out slightly ahead in the early primary states, and while some of tonight’s votes are still being counted, at the time of publication, Biden’s lead sits soundly at over 80 delegates. This appears to be the current frontrunner.

Though Biden’s been in politics for 60-some-odd years now, even the best politicians’ views evolve with the wisdom of age. And now that Biden is unquestionably leading the pack, let’s take a look at some of those evolved policy positions that have gotten Democrats so very fired up. Here is Biden on the issues, in his own words.

....

jivefive99
jivefive99

We are already socialist! Let me repeat that. We are already socialist! Wheres all the Federal $ and regulation? In the healthcare, education and infrastructure areas --- socialist spending. Mish and I in Illinois have our natural gas & electricity bills regulated by the state. I get my water from the city. We're already socialist! NO ONE is suggesting the government tell Apple how big their I-Phones should be. They arent pushing Venezuela socialism/dictatorship. They are pushing Canadian, UK and French socialism. It aint bad, from what I hear. :)

Jojo
Jojo

Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Six Responses To Bernie Skeptics

After decisive victories in New Hampshire and Nevada, and a second place finish in South Carolina, Senator Bernie Sanders has emerged as the clear front runner. Right on cue, the establishment on both sides of the aisle has raised a four-alarm fire about Bernie’s electability and his chances against Trump. Here are 6 responses to these Bernie skeptics.

  1. “America would never elect a socialist.”

P-l-e-a-s-e. America’s most successful and beloved government programs are social insurance – Social Security and Medicare. A highway is a shared social expenditure, as is the military and public parks and schools. The truth is we have already have socialism… for the rich (bailouts of Wall Street, subsidies for Big Ag and Big Pharma, monopolization by cable companies and giant health insurers, giant tax-deductible CEO bonuses) – all of which Bernie wants to end or prevent. And Bernie is not a socialist, he’s a Democratic Socialist, which is very different and very American. FDR was a democratic socialist, just not in name. Democratic socialism, as practiced in Europe, hinges on the same three core principles that used to be practiced in America, before big corporations undermined them – strong safety nets; public investment in healthcare, childcare, and education; and tough regulation of Big Business.

  1. “He’d never beat Trump in the general election.”

....

ReksBG
ReksBG

"Super Tuesday Lesson: People Don't Want a Socialist"
Hey Mish, looks like your future home Utah is ready for a Socialist :)
Are you sure you are making the right move :)?

Realist
Realist

It is rare for me to comment about US politics (or any politics as I am apolitical), but I feel compelled to congratulate Mish for his bold and correct call on this.

Well done Mish. You nailed it.

Art Izagud
Art Izagud

So many Anti-Socialists who buy everything from China and invest heavily there too. Hmmm. Then when those go bust per corruption and malfeasance, said Anti-Socialists are elated to take the bailout and further rent seek. Hmmm. Something's off here. There's the notion that a Bernie/Tulsi ticket could be the only Liberty option at this point, as Bernie could hammer big pharma, and may not make it too long with his heart.

johnmiller2577
johnmiller2577

"Before polls closed and before any exit poll was made, I wrote Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye". You posted this AFTER new polls came out and AFTER Five Thirty Eight wrote their article about how Biden would win on Super Tuesday. Also, Predict It and Vegas casinos all moved Biden to be the favorite before voting started because of new polls. So Mish, your prediction was not as amazing as you want it to seem.

Sechel
Sechel

Mainstream media shocked? Well MSNBC has been under pressure to hire more progressives so on that network you probably had confirmation bias.

Bernie's base was always millenials and that's an age group that traditionally doesn't vote. The big lesson is failing to notice there were two candidates vying for the progressive vote and everyone else fighting for the other lane. Once that busy lane cleared up Biden absorbed the voting strength. It's not a shocker.

But going into South Carolina it was not unreasonable to write Biden off. I did. He had no organization, no money , hadn't won any delegates and didn't seem passionate about running. I'll count myself among those that didn't see this. But how could I?

Bernie ran about where he did in 2016. Doesn't take a genius to know he'd fair poorly among moderate Republicans and Independents. So I don't see a lesson there .That Bernie saw it differently just goes back to his being more of an idealogue than a pragmatist. I really see Bernie and Trump similarly although Bernie seems more honest and has core values but both are extreme at different extremes , don't believe in compromise and can't cross bridges. This is not the quality of a leader

WildBull
WildBull

@Jojo Yep all this socialism stuff is working just great. We created a permanent broken home underclass with welfare and left the poverty rate just where it was in 1964, before Johnson's Great Society. Not to mention that the whole West is going bust to try to pay for all the promises the Socialist pols can't keep. Just effen wonderful

silvermitt
silvermitt

Idk, Mish. There are alot of people who have negative feelings towards Biden. No one really wants socialism, but I see preference for Sanders over Biden in my locality. It's like the better of two evils, if you think about it. Also, depending on who Sanders chooses for VP could be a factor. Biden isn't looked upon kindly for numerous reason.

Sechel
Sechel

i never saw how Sanders was going to get the union vote. A union member with a health care plan is probably not going to ditch it on another option. From the union member standpoint they don't have a problem. It was too much of a leap

perpetually_confused
perpetually_confused

Honestly if you looked at the results with some scrutiny and added up all the votes from the candidates who dropped out that people voted for anyway it would have been pretty close in many states. Biden didn't 'win' anything, he simply garnered more delegate support than the other candidates. 19xx delegates is a pretty steep hill to climb and there are quite a few states to go.

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“Even if some Sanders supporters stay away, it's important to understand the math.”

It’s Biden’s turn to be the Democrat Party candidate. He waited in line long enough until it was his turn and knowing that, skillfully stayed above the fray of fringe candidacies as they took pot shots at him.

Math? They need to understand the math? Here’s some money for the Millenial crowd to grasp : Crazy Uncle Joe is getting outspent something like 10-1.

He’s cruising to the convention from here and not even raising a hell of a lot more money. Never even secured Obama’s endorsement.

Get a clue! None of that matters, it’s 77 yr old Joe Biden’s turn and Joe Biden will be the candidate. Drain the swamp my ass, you can’t even field an upstart candidacy with any staying power.

Portlander2
Portlander2

The problem is that Biden is an awful, uninspiring candidate, and can't unify the Party behind him. Bernie can't either. I hope Warren stays in the race, because as Biden's flaws and baggage become even more obvious, she may become the viable alternative to Biden and Bernie. Otherwise, one must hope for a deadlocked convention.

get
get

I wonder if the coronavirus supports the Democrats because of their commitment to universal health care? Could it be enough to put even Sanders over the top?

Tengen
Tengen

We could even more accurately say that people don't want change. The year 2020 is exposing us as a nation that says we're fed up with the status quo but doesn't mean it.

Sanders is done, he'll never win in a brokered convention. The blue team had three candidates representing some form of actual change in Sanders, Gabbard, and Yang. They were all rejected for a stuffed suit like Biden. That speaks volumes.

On the other side there is Trump. Mind you, this is not candidate Trump of 2016, the brash outsider promising to drain the swamp. This is known quantity Trump, just another CTRL+P artist.

The rest of the year will be a sad exercise of watching blue teamers talk themselves into somebody like Biden, and red teamers telling themselves that Trump will do in his second term what he said he would do in his first. It's pathetic, but that's how we seem to like it.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

How disconnected from reality will Biden appear debating Trump? The list of things I can't believe he said is long enough to start a career in stand-up comedy.

TCW
TCW

Sanders should explain what all the socialists countries that collapsed did wrong, IE what would he do different to prevent the same collapse here.

Herkie
Herkie

I have said from the start Mish, at least 60% and I have seen polls indicating closer to 70%, of democrats have an unfavorible view of socialism, but at least this time the far fringe left was honest enough to come out of the socialist closet and call their policies socialism even if they did couch it in the nonsense buzzwords "democratic socialism" which was really all about appealing to democrats who's party they have latched onto like leeches.

The problem was that with Bloomberg and Warren in the race as well as Mayor Pete and others the nomination was going to have to go to a brokered convention where Sanders actually had a shot, now that they are all out and Biden has sewn up the nomination I am pretty sure the far fringe socialist so called "progressives" will either stay home in November or even vote for Trump. But, Trump will still lose because democrats are fired up in a way we have not seen in a very long time, and most independents that usually sit it out are also aware that the only way to get rid of Trump is to go out and vote for Biden, and it does not matter which view you take about having to hold your nose to elect a candidate, it is true that most people voting will be holding their nose on both sides, but, the GOP and their indy leaners are a lot smaller demographically than the democrats and their leaners. It was always going to be about getting them out to vote.

I also want to point out that Trump cannot win in November without Florida, it just mathematically cannot happen, there will be no path through the EC without that state. There was a proposition for legalized weed that would have brought out a LOT of left voters but it did not make the deadline. Still, you can't win Florida without the Spanish speaking voters there, and a poll of them (likely voters) out yesterday said this: If the final November contest was between Trump and Biden, 58% said they would vote for the former vice president, 38% would vote for the current president and 4% said they're undecided.

Of course polls had HRC ahead by 11% in the final days of 2016 but, this is a 20% lead for Biden in a state that Trump's disapproval rating is higher than his approval rating.

And, I need to mention down ballot for vital, at least nominally red states, AZ which is a red state shows Mark Kelly (D) leading Marth McSally (R) by 7. This is bad news for Moscow Mitch. It bodes ill for the GOP to retain the senate as clearly dems will pick off senate seats in Maine, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, with only Alabama being a pick off for the GOP, that is a net gain of 3 for democrats and there is a near 50/50 chance McConnell will lose his own seat to democrats in KY. These down ballot races will bring out democrats even if the senate seat remains in GOP hands, in states that are traditionally purple or red, only 3 seats have to change for the GOP to lose control of the senate.

Herkie
Herkie

No matter what picture of Biden gets painted he will still be up against Trump who will not have a picture painted but a HD 4k video of his stupidity and corruption.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Mish, did I just read that you are predicting Trump will not be re-elected?


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