Mish

Live Blog - Chime In With Comments

Spring Chickens

Biden Wins Texas

Maine coming up

10-4 in states if Biden hold Maine

Counting American Somoa it's 10-4-1 with Bloomberg winning A.S.

A Word About Predictit

Texas and Maine

Increasingly likely Biden wins both states.

CNN on Texas

I was watching CNN for the last half hour

They were are astonished Biden is in the lead. Three commentators called it the shock of the night.

How ridiculous. I called Texas for Biden.

The shocks of the night were Minnesota and Massachusetts.

Biden Now Ahead in Texas and Maine

What a blowout even if he marginally loses both

Looking Like 9, Possibly 10 For Biden

Cher is for Joe - Better Late Than Never?

Where's the Tweet when it might have mattered?

Gender Gap

Appealing to the youth was not a winning strategy.

Sanders will get killed in Florida, assuming he stays in that long.

Excellent Summary

Donate Now - Warren Not Dropping Out

This is one that I admit confusion over although I have commented on in a number of posts.

Warren clearly cannot stand Sanders. And she purposely attacked him and cost him votes while spreading lies about things Sanders said.

Ideas?

California goes to Sanders

But it will be a week before we have totals.

It's now meaningless.

Massachusetts for Biden

Warren the alleged great uniter cannot even win her home state.

Appeal to the Base Silliness

Minnesota Called for Biden

It's all over

Proud of my bold call Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye

NY Times Assessment

I believe it may no be 7 states called for Biden

Expect Amusement

Late Swing for NC

I underestimated this a bit but did way better than Silver.

Really Bad Night

538: NATE SILVER 9:42 PM

Sarah, if Minnesota were to be called for Biden, his projection would shoot up to 1,944 delegates and Sanders’s would decline to 1,188. It would be a pretty big deal, and it would sort of make Texas a must-win state for Sanders to avoid a really bad night.

[Mish Comment - Excuse me for pointing out this is already a really, really bad night for Sanders]

Minnesota Update

538: GEOFFREY SKELLEY 9:43 PM

Much of Hennepin County (Minneapolis) has reported in Minnesota, and Biden is leading Sanders there by about 2 points, 35 percent to 33 percent. That’s a bit surprising to me, as the Twin Cities are the most liberal part of the state. Warren has 19 percent, though, so I wonder if she actually might be a bit of a spoiler for Sanders there.

[Mish Comment: As amazing as it seems - Biden is on the verge of pulling this off]

I expect Bloomberg to drop out and Endorse Biden

Where the FF is this Guy?

This is just like Brexit where Avid Remainer taunted me for months then failed to show up on election day.

Tennessee Update

538: NATHANIEL RAKICH 9:21 PM

With 49 percent of Election Day precincts reporting in Tennessee, it’s Biden 34 percent, Sanders 24 percent, Bloomberg 19 percent and Warren 9 percent. If those results hold, Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg will qualify for delegates.

[Mish comment: This is over. Warren will be shut out]

Oklahoma and Colorado Called - Mish Comment

Put Oklahoma in Biden's column and Colorado in Sanders

The former rates to be lopsided. The latter I do not know.

Texas - Mish Comment

Sanders ahead 28.8 to 22.5 for Biden with 24.6% reporting

That's unexpected

Maine - Mish Comment

Biden Sanders Tie - Another potential shocker if it holds - 18% reporting

Tennessee - Mish Comment

Biden starting to pull away as expected 30-24 with 28% reporting

Massachusetts - Mish Comment

Warren is in third place with 10.6% reporting

Quite a shocker if it holds

Alabama - Mish Comment

It's now conceivable Biden gets a clean sweep or close to all the delegates.

That would be 52-0 delegates

I don't expect that, but it's possible.

I do expect it will be huge.

Tennessee 3-way Split?

538: NATHANIEL RAKICH8:48 PM

In Tennessee, with 14 percent of Election Day precincts reporting plus a good chunk of the early vote, it’s a notably close race. Sanders has 25 percent, Biden has 24 percent, Bloomberg has 23 percent and Warren has 10 percent. This was a state we expected Biden to win, so I suspect this is another case of the early vote being disproportionately good for Sanders, but this is worth watching.

Comment of the Day on Biden

538: CLARE MALONE 8:34 PM

I keep on thinking back to my chats with Biden campaign staffers and surrogates this summer when they were in the midst of a whole lot of bad news cycles about Biden and black voters, and they just kept saying that his strengths would lie in the South on Super Tuesday. Man, say what you will about Biden as a candidate, but that campaign had a theory of the case from the very beginning and they stuck with it: Be the moderate and meet the majority (or plurality) of the party where they are. Other candidates probably misjudged slightly how liberal the party base was willing to be. But that was always the Biden strategy.

[Mish: That matches my often stated view that candidates need to appeal to the center not the extremes]

Reflections on Touch Screen Voting

538: KALEIGH ROGERS 8:30 PM

I can’t help wondering if touchscreen voting machines are germ vectors. Yet another argument for hand-marked paper ballots!

Virginia - My Comment

It appears that Bloomberg and Warren may be shut out of Virginia

If so, that would be about a 70-30 split or 70 to Biden and 29 to Bernie.

Wow.

Update warren may win 1 delegate.

Alabama Called for Biden

Returns from Texas and Tennessee coming in

Comment on White Educated Women Voting for Biden, Not Warren

538: AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX 8:03 PM

One place where Biden is doing especially well: the northern Virginia suburbs, which are full of white college-educated women who I would have guessed would lean toward Warren. Makes me wonder if some of them decided to strategically vote for Biden in that surge of late deciders.

How Much Did Bloomberg Spend Per Vote?

538: GEOFFREY SKELLEY 7:56 PM

Would like to know how much money Bloomberg spent per vote in American Samoa.

[Mish Comment: Tulsi came close to winning I believe]

Biden Wins North Carolina

Note: I am following 2 live blogs and plucking off charts and comments that I find interesting

WSJ Live Update

538 Live Update

Interesting Thought on California

538: AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX 7:50 PM

The time differences in the results tonight are not very helpful to Sanders. Western states are where he’s strongest, but Biden’s first few East Coast wins are dominating television coverage right now. I wonder if that even ends up influencing some voters in places where people are still standing in line at the polls. (Cough cough, Los Angeles County!)

Bloomberg Wins American Samoa

538: GEOFFREY SKELLEY 7:43 PM

The best part about Bloomberg winning American Samoa is that we are forever guaranteed another color on 2020 primary maps, even if Bloomberg can’t win a single other contest.

538: NATHANIEL RAKICH 7:38 PM

We have full results from American Samoa, the only territory and only caucus of Super Tuesday! Bloomberg has won his first contest of the primary season. This is perhaps unsurprising, given that he had seven paid staffers in the territory and spent a lot of money on TV, digital and print ads there

James Comey Voted for Biden

Delays in NC - Polls Open Until 8:10 PM Supposed to close at 7:30

538: AARON BYCOFFE 7:06 PM

Virginia has 99 delegates to the national convention, and at poll closing, ABC News has assigned 16 of them to Biden. Eighteen more are available based on the statewide vote, and an additional 65 will be awarded based on the votes in Virginia’s 11 congressional districts.

538 PERRY BACON JR.6:54 PM Perhaps He Will

Vanity Fair is reporting that some of Bloomberg’s own staff wanted him to leave the race before voting today, post-South Carolina. The fact that such reporting has emerged gives me some sense that there is a decent chance that Bloomberg is leaving the race this week — I doubt his aides would let that out if he is running till the convention.

538: AMELIA THOMSON-DEVEAUX 6:53 PM - Bloomberg Won't Drop Out

Bloomberg’s campaign manager apparently just told reporters in Florida, “I think Mike Bloomberg is either the candidate for the party or the single most important person helping that candidate defeat Donald Trump” — but then added that he’s “absolutely not” dropping out tonight.

Virginia Called with 0% Reporting

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (70)
Sechel
Sechel

Nice Biden win in Virginia and North Carolina. Biden is outperforming expectations in both. Guessing he benefited from South Carolina momentum and the Jim Clyburn endorsement. I'm interested in how California votes. Having modersates drop out and narrowing his lane helped immensely. Bloomberg doesn't look like he's doing well. Warren is a non-factor

No. 1-35
Tengen
Tengen

If Biden wins/steals the nomination, his debates with Trump will be some of the most cringe worthy TV since "Who Wants to Marry a Multi-Millionaire". Neither can enunciate a coherent policy, but Trump knows how to work a crowd and can take Joe to the mat with ease. Trump would win bigly without having to take an actual position on anything.

SteveVT
SteveVT

Bloomberg is not a good candidate. Stumbles around questions, alienates many with his petty tyrant moves involving, well, pretty much everything.

shamrock
shamrock

Tulsi wins a delegate from American Somao, still alive!

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

My kinda forecast:

abend237-04
abend237-04

I feel better. This proves we can't be bought, Bloombucks, but it leaves open yet whether we can be conned...by the current socialist standard bearer.

Sechel
Sechel

How is Warren not leading in Massachusettes, her home state?

Mish
Mish

Editor

Biden ahead in Maine and Tied in MA - both shockers but early

Stuki
Stuki

Sanders just doesn't connect at all in The South, does he?

I guess the question then becomes, will any Democrat do so, in the general? Or will the DNC end up doing the equivalent of the GOP picking their candidate, based on who is most popular in California?

Sechel
Sechel

The headline will be Biden outperformed, Sanders underperformed. Bloomberg didn't do what he needed to do . Warren downright collapsed. She couldn't win either of her home states

Sechel
Sechel

Bottom line if Biden is strong today Bloomberg loses his argument. Bloomberg's argument was that Biden looks weak and carry the football past the goal post. Biden's strength is Bloomberg's weakness. Bernie's dying right now. Even when Sanders is winning he's not winning by much and they essentially split the delegates he'll net maybe 1-3 delegates in states he ekes out a win

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

Mish - Thanks!

Just saw Warren....

She is the Textbook definition of “ego”... she truly believes that she’s the “best” person to be President... wow...

She’s in for the duration...

5 Replies

Mish
Mish

Editor

I believe she is
And as called - This helps Biden

Quatloo
Quatloo

She will quit this week, she can’t possibly stay in after today

Mish
Mish

Editor

Please don't say "can't possibly"

Her vindictiveness to Sanders might easily keep her in.
She has funding to last through March

The only thing to do her in is a Sanders concession or a Bloomberg endorsement of Biden

Those would put Biden over the top.

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

Well....looks like I over estimated Warren’s stamina.

But, she’s apparently pouting and not endorsing anyone...

Sechel
Sechel

My prediction is if Biden does well today and gets the majority of delegates, Obama will endorse and help him get over the goal in the next round of states

Sunriver
Sunriver

The Cript Keeper versus Orange Julius. Maybe theyll both show up to the debates in walkers? This year's election will be the Boomers last stand.

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Warren is clearly hurting Sanders in a few key states. As for Biden, he seems to be doing well in deep south and southern end of the Mid-west. All of those areas will go to Trump.

John212
John212

Saw this on twitter" One potential loser tonight is campaigns. Like, in general.

Joe Biden had ONE field office in Virginia. Was outspent 7-to-1 by Sanders and almost 100-to-1 by Bloomberg in all super Tuesday States. Had barely campaigned in any states. And yet."

truthseeker
truthseeker

Mish you’ve done a great job and all with your picks, but please don’t become so very very very very proud of yourself or you may start to become a seriously deranged kind of political animal!

awc13
awc13

interesting. Trump's age was an issue last time for the media. i wonder why the msm isn't talking about age any more

QTPie
QTPie

As of now, with 37% of CA precincts reporting Biden has 21% in California. As long as he maintains north of 15% percent then while not necessarily wining the plurality of the votes in the state, then he will most likely be the overall winner on Super Tuesday. Will be quite difficult for Bernie in the race from then on.

Sechel
Sechel

can't see how anyone but biden and sanders stay in. looks like sanders lost his electability argument and if super-delegates come in its virtually a certainty biden wins. all sanders can do is threaten revolution if the superdelegates don't award him the nomination and cry stolen election. the risk now is if this does go to biden preventing a huge part of the democratic base from sitting out the general

Quatloo
Quatloo

Is it possible that Warren thinks she can be Biden’s VP by offering to bring the progressive wing with her?

I have talked to a lot of Bernie supporters and none of them would vote for Biden—they will just stay home. They believe the Pelosi-Schumer-Biden Democratic Party is corrupt and in bed with Wall Street and the military. Maybe they would get excited with Warren on the ticket?

Quatloo
Quatloo

Mish, kudos to you on your predictions. You did way better than the MSM with your forecast.

WildBull
WildBull

@Quatloo Bernie supporters are correct. The Dems are in bed with all them there big banks and giant corporations. The problem is Bernie's solution is to turn us into Venezuela. I actually could live with Biden and a Republican congress. Not much will happen, and that's a good thing.

jivefive99
jivefive99
  1. It is now apparent that IA and NH tell us absolutely nothing about where the country is going politically and 2) the billionaires who own this country, the globalists who lost in 2016, were not gonna allow 2016 to happen again. They crowned Biden by buying off Butti and Klob, etc., and very shortly Sanders will be neutralized as well, returning to the country's trajectory of intl. slave labor, never-ending borrowing, enriching the rich, death of the middle and the expansion of the "poor American serf." Depressing.
moyerdere2
moyerdere2

Here is an interesting thing:

  1. Pete and Amy dropping right before Super Tuesday and endorsing Biden, but Warren stays in (maybe she endorses Biden, or maybe she endorses no one, but she takes similar policies as Bernie)
  2. Reporting of delegates: How come all the states that Bernie won aren't assigning the delegates? California, Utah and Colorado are all reporting less than there assigned delegates. In California, where Bernie is likely to get a huge number of delegates, it is around 25%. Texas and Maine are also not reporting all as well, but they are going to be split almost evenly.
    hmmmm....
truthseeker
truthseeker

Obviously stocks are up as investors are extremely relieved since it looks like we won’t have a pure socialist as president, even though Biden is much more liberal than most people think. Mish you know several weeks ago before Bloomberg’s debate disaster I said that the best pair for the Democrats would be a Bloomberg-Klobuchar ticket. Also I agreed with you that even if Sanders wins the nomination, he might still beat Trump for a number of reasons you have recently discussed even before the Coronavirus showed up, Now the economy is getting weaker, and Trump is blowing his chance to provide solid leadership in dealing with the virus crisis at least so far. What bothers me down here in Texas is that Biden is hanging around with Beto O’rourke who is an embarrassment to the state. Also Biden will totally shut down the oil industry and if he continues to embrace his anti-fracking position where we’ll loose millions of jobs, and he also intends to tax capital gains as ordinary income, and I think he may even support the globalist concept of open borders as does Beto O’rourke which will ruin the state and the whole country eventually..

Zardoz
Zardoz

Biden has 2 qualifications: he was Obama’s ‘don’t scare the white people’ prop, and he’s not trump. Other than that, he’s the same crooked corporate tool that both parties have been shoving at us for as long as I have been alive.

Looks like I’ll be writing in Camacho again.

Cocoa
Cocoa

So, everyone, Joe Biden dominated a region he has no chance in for Nov. FYI. Trump will mow him under like a dandelion. California shows that the independent vote is pretty anti-establishment this time. Indies voted for Dems in CA

moyerdere2
moyerdere2

I hope the Libertarians nominate a decent choice this time. I will vote for them if so. Can't vote for Biden.

abend237-04
abend237-04

I feel obligated to acknowledge that winning Samoa is not nothing, but for the same $800 million, he could probably have bought the entire island.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Mish had Biden with 51 more than Sanders, and it appears that it is about 64 more for Biden. Very nice call.

Mish
Mish

Editor

CA and Co not reporting thanks to Mail-In votes

I discussed this many times

California will count votes postmarked Yesterday. (How stupid is that?)

I believe Colorado is a high mail-in state too

WildBull
WildBull

All of the Dems have lost their minds. Has any of them done the math on the clean energy stuff. Just quickly, there are about 40kWh of energy in a gallon of oil, 40 kWh /gal * 42gal/bbl = 1680 kWh in a barrel. A 200W solar panel collects about 1kWh in a day, so we need 1680 *20000000 =33.6Billion solar panels to offset just the oil. That's about 100 solar panels for each man, woman and child in the country. This does not include gas or coal.

Sechel
Sechel

Trying to see what I got so wrong. I don't think there was anything to miss. Biden had no organization. He had no money and he had no delegates coming into South Carolina. It was an unexpected Tsunami. If Biden had stayed weak, Bloomberg would have done better. Given Biden's impressive performance Bloomberg had to get out. The writing was on the wall. What I can't figure out is why Warren is stil in . She did terrible in Mass and Oklhamoma. I suspect she's negotiating a deal with Sanders. I can't accept the fact she might endorse Biden. I just don't see it. Her ideology is too clear.

bowwow
bowwow

I'm on board with getting Sanders and Warren out and, from a playing with matches perspective, it is probably best that they are out soon.

After noticing Biden's mental condition, I'm wondering why the Democrats would rally around him. Who is behind this? I think this will impact his chances of beating Trump. Though most of the Sanders and Warren supporters will vote for him. I don't believe Biden will get the fed-up with Trump voters.


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