EURUSD and The FED last night

Patrick Reid

#EURUSD and The FED A lot has been said about last night so i won't bang on about how "dovish" The FED was. Call me old fashioned but if I'm trading spot i look at the various rates curves. I'm long cheap USD as the only thing the The FED did was it got in line with OIS and ED Futures. These rates curves are broadly UNCHANGED. This is significant. Remember OIS priced out a hike (see my blogs for the last 2 months) and ED Futures priced IN a RATE CUT quite some time below. The DOTS have been lagging for a long time. The FED is following the market not the other way around. However QT being brought forward to May a consideration. This is not far away so i have adjust my risk accordingly. TECHS 1.1360 broke so look for a retest 1.1445 a cheeky top side level on the fib so expect sellers to turn up here 1.15 big fig The mother of all levels Good luck and I'll stop my ranting of rates versus rhetoric. That's a big fat naughty fib by the way.

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