FED to pause QT - buy the risk rumour or sell the fact ?

Patrick Reid

QT update and the rumours today

Let me say this loud and clear. Forget IR hikes because after >8 25bps the FCI has not moved one JOT. In fact Chicago is still near to 50 year lows. Goldman’s has bounced due to QT only because it is weighted in offshore USD. EM deficits felt the most amount of pain so far - obviously. Pausing QT in relative terms is the same as a cut. It is also similar to QE by inaction and depending on the duration of the pause it will have huge positive repercussions on risk assets. Expect jpy pairs to rally a LOT more (if rumours are true) And finally. Just in case you missed the gravitas. If the Fed pauses QT it will raise eyebrows just enough in some hedge funds to think they are blinking. If the market thinks the fed has regained the PUT risk will fly to the moon. This means no matter what happens the Fed has got the markets back. Remember Perception is exactly the same as reality. Forget the slow down in China because this is QE but in stealth mode.