The #flashcrash last night.
I'm not going to talk about what happened, what triggered it, what to do, how OTC needs circuit breakers like exchanges (which will never happen) and how Mrs Watanabe carry traders got taken to the cleaners. You all know this by previous comments from pretty much everyone else.
I'm going to talk about luck. Well, more like probability.
I got very lucky last night and woke up 2 big figs in court. The point is i along with #beatnussbaumer have been a risk bear for most of Q4. If you follow my posts i have listed ALL the reasons. So, with that in mind I was reluctant on buying JPYxxx let alone leaving bids anywhere. I was happy to leave O/N shorts with risk attached - because i defined it. I played the probability and accepted it. The flash crash was a perfect storm that involved liquidity issues but it was NOT the only reason.
What next ?
I am still a risk bear and the reasons have not changed but i am NOT selling at these levels. If you missed the previous list here it is. Nothing has changed my view. China slowing as deleveraging continues. PMI's <50 QT hurting EM as deficit USD cost higher VOL still helping hurt CTA's pain lower US macro still laughing BUT not surprising to the upside - see Citi Oil - enough said