FOMC last night. My thoughts.

Patrick Reid

#fomc last night A USD story not risk which caught me off guard as EUR, Cable, AUD and NZD higher with USDJPY lower Risk crosses therefore generally mixed but AUDJPY sneaking up being helped by AUDUSD not USDJPY. A similar story with EURJPY as EURUSD kissed 1.15 big fig and USDJPY went south of 109. Stocks rallied but risk pairs and yields didn't do much. The elephant in the room is China as DM CB's half blinked. I think they are worried and so am I. Draghi - dovish tilt PBOC - quasi QE with a cheeky injection and a RRR cut FOMC - dovish but not really weak data. Housing affordabilty looms large - i know that - but this has already been priced into OIS and ED Futures. Last October The FED went from way below neutral, just below neutral, Clarida flip flop, patience, and now data dependent. What happened to the data in the US ? Nothing materially weaker. That means they might be worried about global slowdown more than we think. I'm not going to mention a FED PUT because it "doesn't exist" hahahahaha

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