Risk on/USD weakness update

Patrick Reid

Current thoughts on the risk rally/USD weakness:

Still makes no sense but that's markets for you.

No let up which is why I started smalls.

Patience is key but I'm re-evaluating and will cut positions by the end of NA session today.

Keep an eye out for US CPI because if it comes in stronger JP will be nimble, pragmatic, patience and LIVE. That means a second hike is back on the table. Oil bouncing helps - but more on that later.


EURJPY might slow a little if EURUSD remains below 1.1480 but USDJPY staying above 108.15 is NOT helping my bearish play on this xccy pair

AUDUSD - see chart

0.7150 a mini level but 0.7180 and 0.7210 are a couple of tough marines

AUDJPY If USDJPY stays firm (and I'm dreading it might) and AUDUSD breaks 0.7210 AUDJPY may reach 78.70 which is doable today.

Like we said. It's always good to start smalls because risk on squeezes can go on longer than you think.