What actually happened last Friday with The FOMC ?

Risk on move way over done - my humble opinion of course

#fomc and hashtag#jaypowell on Friday I think this risk on move is overdone. USD weakness too and here's why.

JP spoke about having "no present path for policy" and expressed the need "for patience" He also took on board the divergence with current US data (firm wages versus weaker CPI) AND the market sending warning signs out.

OIS had 1 hike and now the FED is more in line with this price. (The last projections had two of course) What on earth was dovish about that ?

His vernacular was spot on. His tone was in line and bereft of inference against the current rhetoric. Remember what is happening at the FED.

Every meeting live, reduced forward guidance post GFC, patience and being nimble were mentioned. All of this was on point with the new leadership.

In my humble opinion he is being pragmatic.

I'm still a risk bear but layering small size and being on top of risk management is KEY.

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Patrick Reid
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