TGIF – Markets End Wild Week on a Sour Note

My biggest concerns were Japanese Debt and China's Bad Loans and that the market was due for another 2.5%

Better late than never.

As noted in yesterday's Report, I was on Money Talk Wednesday night (adding a big hedge to that portfolio) and I said my biggest concerns were Japanese Debt and China's Bad Loans and that the market was due for another 2.5% to the downside and yesterday I titled the morning Report: "Thursday Failure – Fed and Trump Fail to Boost the Markets" and I looked a little silly at yesterday's open as we popped back to 2,840 but not so much by the day's end, when we were back to 2,820 and not at all silly now as we're bouncing off the 2,800 line.

As I said yesterday in a post that Seeking Alpha refused to publish because "…there are just too many references to your non-SA subscription service here. (This includes links that go to sign-up pages, which we don't allow authors to use.)", which is ridiculous as the fact that they don't consistently publish my posts FORCES me to provide links back to Philstockworld so people can read what I wrote and, if readers don't sign up, they have no way to access the full post!

Anyway, where was I? Oh yes, so yesterday in the (REDACTED FOR SA), I said:

We have plenty of longs and the thing that is most likely to wreck the market this week is disappointing FANG results so that Nasdaq (SQQQ) hedge (see: "Top Trades for Sun, 28 Jan 2018 19:53 – Money Talk Portfolio") or the Dow (DIA) hedge we dicussed in yesterday's report (see "Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition") are good ways to protect yourself into earnings this evening and NFP tomorrow.

FYI, Wednesday's post was rejected by Seeking Alpha because: "There's just too many references to trade ideas that were not available to our Seeking Alpha readers yesterday, Phil." which means obviously I have to refer back to the article on PSW because SA never published it. REALLY CAN THEY BE THAT STUPID??? I'm sorry, not stupid, I'm sure they were only following orders and SA readers don't complain about what they are missing, so I shouldn't either.

First they came for the Technical Analysts, and I did not speak out—
Because I do not follow Technical Analysts.
Then they came for the Future Traders, and I did not speak out—
Because I was do not follow Futures Traders.
Then they came for the Chartists, and I did not speak out—
Because I do not follow Chartists.
Then they came for my Favorite Author — and there was no one left to speak for my Favorite Author.

It's a real shame because Wednesday's post featured our STRONGLY recommended Dow (DIA) hedge which is right on track to make a profit of $17,800 (80%) as the Dow falls but, becuase it wasn't the only trade we discussed (we discussed Futures trades that were part of a discussion about techniques for trading the Futures, which is hard to have without examples and SA doesn't have a live trading room to draw examples from like we do at WWW.PHILSTOCKWORLD.COM, which you can SIGN UP FOR at this link to get uncensored, up to the minute access to all of our trade ideas.

As much as I dread referring to it, I did say in yesterday's PSW Report (in an article that was EXCLUSIVELY available at www.philstockworld.com. though not by my intention):

Meanwhile, we're not there yet as the fall in the S&P from 2,870 to 2,820 is only 1.7% so, as Robert Frost said "Miles to go before I sleep." In fact, now it's 8:50 and the indexes have continued lower without a bounce so double those gains on our Futures shorts (you're welcome) and now the play is tight stops on 1/2 and looser stops (weak bounce lines) on the other half – in case we get a really nice sell-off today.
As I said to our Members on Tuesday as we hit Dow 26,000 – "another 600 points to go to complete this drop cycle". In fact, the Dow Futures (/YM) are just now crossing back below 26,000 (up $1,000 per contract on our shorts!) so a move down to 25,400 would make another $3,000 per contract if it happens so great for a new trade, right now, with tight stops above 26,000 means you risk losing $5 per point before you stop out vs potential $3,000 gains – THAT IS HOW YOU HEDGE WITH THE FUTURES!
As noted above, we were interrupted by the ridiculous over-reaction to Boeing's earnings (and they are buying back $9Bn worth of stock, which is 5% of the company) but, other than that, the market action was weak and we'll see how the next couple of days go but, so far, we've failed those weak bounce lines I laid out for you yesterday – and that's the bearish signal we've been looking for to indicate we've got another leg down to go from here.

Anyway, we have our hedges and we're well-positioned for a drop and we'll play our Futures shorts as well if we fail to make weak bounces off this morning's Futures dips (see this week's censored posts for educational and informative notes on how to play the Futures and how to calculate bounce lines) and, other than that, we'll watch and wait.

We're still adding longs, we found 4 bank stocks we liked yesterday – we're just making sure we're well-hedged for the correction.

Have a great weekend,

  • Phil
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