2.6%-4.1% for a total return up to the year 2028 for the S&P 500 is a lousy return! I hope we can do a 100% return by the year 2022.
That's an annual 2.6% for 10 years. Peanuts! The bank is better & safer! Unless, of course, we do better than that interest rate.
That's because when you have an overvalued market, it has to eventually lose a ton of that ground gained. Then the market trades sideways at that much lower level for a while (typically) and then it begins the process of regaining old ground taken. That takes a while and then it goes into new territory. By the time all of that happens and you make a return and you divide it by the time it took, that's where the ultra-low returns come from. That's why we don't buy overvalued stocks (high P/E's) and we don't buy stocks after they've had huge run-ups.