Replacing Mrs Yellen - The runners and riders [Podcast]
According to the survey, just 17% of 176 economists polled think Mrs Yellen would be around for a second term. At the time of our client call back in April, David Stockton, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute and former Chief Economist at the Fed, felt that Mrs Yellen had a 50% chance of being re-nominated but that there was only a 50% chance that she would accept the nomination...
The ultimate question is; what type of Fed will we have in a year? Despite President Trump’s campaign rhetoric about a more hawkish Fed, it is very likely that the next FOMC will be as dovish as the one that we have today. If Mrs Yellen is replaced, it will probably be by a person that will allow growth to move above the 1.75% trend that the Fed is currently estimating. I guess Mr Cohn could fit that description well.